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Jets at Avalanche
NHL

Winnipeg Jets at Colorado Avalanche

NHL scoreboard
Winnipeg Jets
▸7
Colorado Avalanche
4
FinalTV ALT2, TSN3·Pepsi Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Winnipeg Jets beat the Colorado Avalanche 7-4. The Jets scored first and never trailed. The Jets led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Kyle Connor's goal at 10:45 of the third period, which took the Jets' chances from 55% to 81%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 3.8 to 3.5; shots on goal were WPG 26, COL 43. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 78% of the time. Connor Hellebuyck stopped 39 of 43 (.907); Philipp Grubauer stopped 19 of 24 (.792), 2.9 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Kyle Connor (3 G), 2. Nathan MacKinnon (2 G), 3. Connor Hellebuyck (39 saves, .907).

Three stars

  1. ★
    WPG
    K. Connor3 G
  2. ★★
    COL
    N. MacKinnon2 G
  3. ★★★
    WPG
    C. Hellebuyck39 saves, .907

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
WPGWPG1821246726
COLCOL117115211443

Scoring

11 goals

1st period

  1. WPG
    B. Wheeler(12)
    N. Ehlers (15), J. Roslovic (8)
    snapxG 0.09win prob +13 pts
    1-0
    6:25
  2. COL
    N. MacKinnon(23)
    S. Girard (14), E. Johnson (7)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +13 pts
    1-1
    9:43

2nd period

  1. WPG
    K. Connor(18)
    M. Scheifele (24), P. Laine (24)
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +19 pts
    2-1
    8:27
  2. COL
    N. MacKinnon(24)PPG
    S. Girard (15), N. Kadri (12)
    slapxG 0.11win prob +15 pts
    2-2
    13:47
  3. WPG
    M. Scheifele(18)
    N. Pionk (21)
    slapxG 0.18win prob +19 pts
    3-2
    14:53

3rd period

  1. COL
    G. Landeskog(10)PPG
    T. Jost (8)
    wristxG 0.19win prob +22 pts
    3-3
    7:15
  2. WPG
    K. Connor(19)PPG
    M. Scheifele (25), N. Pionk (22)
    tip-inxG 0.12win prob +26 pts
    4-3
    10:45
  3. WPG
    K. Connor(20)
    P. Laine (25), M. Scheifele (26)
    backhandxG 0.13win prob +9 pts
    5-3
    16:31
  4. WPG
    B. Wheeler(13)EN
    J. Roslovic (9), N. Ehlers (16)
    backhandxG 0.84win prob +1 pts
    6-3
    17:39
  5. COL
    N. Kadri(13)
    M. Rantanen (16), E. Johnson (8)
    wristxG 0.08
    6-4
    19:16
  6. WPG
    N. Ehlers(16)EN
    J. Roslovic (10), B. Wheeler (21)
    wristxG 0.54
    7-4
    19:48

Penalties

WPG 10 PIM·COL 4 PIM

2nd

  • 10:22WPGLuca Sbisa · Slashingdrawn by Nathan MacKinnon2 min
  • 13:04WPGKyle Connor · Holdingdrawn by Samuel Girard2 min
  • 13:47WPGAnthony Bitetto · Roughingdrawn by J.T. Compher2 min
  • 13:47COLJ.T. Compher · Roughingdrawn by Anthony Bitetto2 min

3rd

  • 5:05WPGKyle Connor · Cross checking double minordrawn by Samuel Girard4 min
  • 10:38COLNazem Kadri · Interferencedrawn by Mason Appleton2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
COL goalWPG goalFinal: COL 0%

Biggest swing: Kyle Connor, 3rd 10:45 — WPG 55% → 81%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
G. Landeskog · Missed · xG 0.37M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.24G. Landeskog · Goal · xG 0.19N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.17M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.16A. Burakovsky · On goal · xG 0.16P. Bellemare · Missed · xG 0.15N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.13N. MacKinnon · Goal · xG 0.11N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.09C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.09N. Kadri · Goal · xG 0.08N. Kadri · Missed · xG 0.08P. Bellemare · On goal · xG 0.08C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.08G. Landeskog · Missed · xG 0.07N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.07T. Jost · Missed · xG 0.07J. Donskoi · On goal · xG 0.07M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.07N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.07G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.07A. Burakovsky · Missed · xG 0.07E. Johnson · Missed · xG 0.07M. Calvert · On goal · xG 0.06N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.06M. Nieto · On goal · xG 0.05G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.05R. Graves · Missed · xG 0.05C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.04T. Jost · On goal · xG 0.04I. Cole · On goal · xG 0.04S. Girard · Missed · xG 0.04M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.04G. Landeskog · Missed · xG 0.04N. Zadorov · On goal · xG 0.04T. Jost · Missed · xG 0.04M. Calvert · On goal · xG 0.04V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.03A. Burakovsky · On goal · xG 0.03N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.03E. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.03N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.03C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.02N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.02C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.02A. Burakovsky · Missed · xG 0.02N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.02E. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.02N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.02N. MacKinnon · Goal · xG 0.02R. Graves · On goal · xG 0.02S. Girard · On goal · xG 0.02N. Zadorov · On goal · xG 0.02C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.01N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.01R. Graves · Missed · xG 0.01C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.01E. Johnson · Missed · xG 0.01S. Girard · On goal · xG 0.01G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.01C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.00G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.00
COL4 G · 3.8 xG · 63 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

WPGvsCOL
3.55 G
All situations
4 G3.8
2.04 G
Even strength
2 G2.7
0.11 G
Power play
2 G1.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 95 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
WPG22%78%COL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.05 – 3.82

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

WPGvsCOL
26
Shots on goal
43
46%
Faceoffs
54%
1/1
Power play
2/4
10
Penalty minutes
4
31
Hits
13
21
Blocked shots
9
4
Giveaways
8
4
Takeaways
13

Box score

every player line
Winnipeg Jets skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
4N. PionkD022+300.02700—22:58
5L. SbisaD000+300.00542—22:42
44J. MorrisseyD000+110.09010—22:35
3T. PoolmanD000+200.00120—21:29
26B. WheelerR213+320.941105518:41
55M. ScheifeleC134+330.451103818:37
81K. ConnorL303+280.90016—17:44
29P. LaineL022+320.070005017:17
27N. EhlersL123+330.64010—17:03
28J. RoslovicC033+310.0600010016:24
2A. BitettoD000-120.03712—16:00
17A. LowryC000020.071104215:15
88N. BeaulieuD000000.00430—14:25
57G. BourqueL000010.06230—13:54
85M. PerreaultC000000.0000010013:38
21N. ShoreC000-200.002102509:27
82M. AppletonC000-210.18010007:39
58J. HarkinsC000-200.00000007:19
Winnipeg Jets goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
37C. Hellebuyck(W)43394.9073.85-0.1560:00

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).