Hurricanes at Oilers 6-3 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Carolina Hurricanes

▸6

Edmonton Oilers

FinalTV FS-CR, SNW·Rogers Place

Recap

written from the game data

The Carolina Hurricanes beat the Edmonton Oilers 6-3. The Hurricanes scored first and never trailed. The Hurricanes led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jordan Martinook's goal at 9:27 of the third period, which took the Hurricanes' chances from 48% to 80%. Expected goals favored the Oilers, 3.7 to 3.0; shots on goal were CAR 32, EDM 36. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Oilers win a replay of these chances 61% of the time. James Reimer stopped 33 of 36 (.917), 0.7 goals saved above expected; Mikko Koskinen stopped 26 of 32 (.813), 3.0 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Sebastian Aho (2 G), 2. Connor McDavid (3 A), 3. Jordan Martinook (1 G).

Three stars

★
S. Aho2 G
★★
C. McDavid3 A
★★★
J. Martinook1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CAR	311	015	36	632
EDM	012	113	211	336

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

S. Aho(17)
T. Teravainen (23), D. Hamilton (19)
wristxG 0.09win prob +12 pts
1-0
4:15
N. Niederreiter(4)PPG
J. Gardiner (6), L. Wallmark (6)
tip-inxG 0.10win prob +13 pts
2-0
17:58
R. Dzingel(6)PPG
N. Niederreiter (9)
snapxG 0.19win prob +8 pts
3-0
19:56

2nd period

Z. Kassian(10)
C. Jones (1), C. McDavid (34)
wristxG 0.23win prob +10 pts
3-1
7:45

3rd period

R. Nugent-Hopkins(6)PPG
L. Draisaitl (35), C. McDavid (35)
tip-inxG 0.14win prob +15 pts
3-2
2:51
Z. Kassian(11)
C. McDavid (36), J. Nygard (3)
wristxG 0.12win prob +28 pts
3-3
5:40
J. Martinook(2)
A. Svechnikov (20), W. Foegele (8)
snapxG 0.07win prob +32 pts
4-3
9:27
S. Aho(18)PPG
A. Svechnikov (21), T. Teravainen (24)
tip-inxG 0.12win prob +11 pts
5-3
12:16
D. Hamilton(11)
J. Staal (7)
slapxG 0.00win prob +2 pts
6-3
15:19

Penalties

10 PIM·

18 PIM

1st

6:32Julien Gauthier · Hookingdrawn by Oscar Klefbom2 min
13:15Nino Niederreiter · Trippingdrawn by Leon Draisaitl2 min
16:40Darnell Nurse · Elbowingdrawn by Nino Niederreiter2 min
19:50Zack Kassian · Interferencedrawn by Teuvo Teravainen2 min

2nd

15:52Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Hookingdrawn by Martin Necas2 min

3rd

0:21Jaccob Slavin · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
0:59Teuvo Teravainen · High stickingdrawn by Connor McDavid2 min
1:48Brett Pesce · Ps covering puck in crease0 min
11:00Zack Kassian · Roughingdrawn by James Reimer2 min
12:16Zack Kassian · Misconduct10 min
18:18Dougie Hamilton · Slashingdrawn by Markus Granlund2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: EDM

Biggest swing: Jordan Martinook, 3rd 9:27 — CAR 48% → 80%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

3 G · 3.7 xG · 52 att

←

attacks

attacks →

6 G · 3.0 xG · 47 att EDM

3 G · 3.7 xG · 52 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

3.06 G
All situations: 3 G3.7; 1.83 G
Even strength: 2 G2.3; 0.73 G
Power play: 1 G1.4; 0.50 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 99 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

39%61%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.94 – 3.61

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

32
Shots on goal: 36; 57%
Faceoffs: 43%; 3/4
Power play: 1/5; 10
Penalty minutes: 18; 17
Hits: 21; 6
Blocked shots: 15; 13
Giveaways: 22; 10
Takeaways: 8

Box score

every player line

Carolina Hurricanes skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
19D. HamiltonD	1	1	2	+1	5	0.15	2	0	2	—	23:31
6J. EdmundsonD	0	0	0	+2	0	0.04	3	0	0	—	22:08
74J. SlavinD	0	0	0	-1	2	0.02	0	3	2	—	22:05
22B. PesceD	0	0	0	0	3	0.12	0	0	0	—	21:58
11J. StaalC	0	1	1	0	0	0.00	3	0	0	62	20:22
20S. AhoC	2	0	2	0	4	0.22	1	0	0	50	19:49
86T. TeravainenC	0	2	2	0	2	0.32	0	0	2	0	18:46
37A. SvechnikovR	0	2	2	+1	1	0.15	2	0	0	—	16:42
21N. NiederreiterR	1	1	2	0	2	0.20	0	0	2	—	16:30
71L. WallmarkC	0	1	1	0	1	0.10	1	0	0	46	14:00
13W. FoegeleL	0	1	1	0	2	0.33	0	0	0	—	13:46
23B. McGinnL	0	0	0	+1	1	0.30	1	1	0	—	13:33
88M. NecasC	0	0	0	0	1	0.03	1	0	0	100	13:05
51J. GardinerD	0	1	1	0	1	0.04	0	0	0	—	12:54
57T. van RiemsdykD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	0	—	12:43
18R. DzingelC	1	0	1	0	5	0.67	0	0	0	0	11:47
48J. MartinookL	1	0	1	+1	2	0.16	2	2	0	75	11:11
44J. GauthierR	0	0	0	0	0	0.09	0	0	2	—	06:52

Carolina Hurricanes goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
47J. Reimer(W)	36	33	3	.917	3.71	+0.71	58:44

Season series

Tied 1-1

Dec 106@3this game
Feb 164@3OTFinal

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Carolina Hurricanes at Edmonton Oilers

1st period

2nd period

3rd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score