Maple Leafs at Coyotes 3-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Toronto Maple Leafs

▸3

Utah Mammoth

FinalTV FS-A, FS-A PLUS·Gila River Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Utah Mammoth 3-1. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. The Maple Leafs led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Pierre Engvall's goal at 16:49 of the second period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 65% to 85%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 2.5 to 2.1; shots on goal were TOR 33, ARI 31. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 59% of the time. Frederik Andersen stopped 30 of 31 (.968), 1.1 goals saved above expected; Darcy Kuemper stopped 30 of 33 (.909). Three stars: 1. Frederik Andersen (30 saves, .968), 2. Auston Matthews (1 G), 3. Pierre Engvall (1 G).

Three stars

★
F. Andersen30 saves, .968
★★
A. Matthews1 G
★★★
P. Engvall1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TOR	111	114	18	333
ARI	013	010	18	131

Scoring

4 goals

1st period

T. Barrie(1)
I. Mikheyev (9), J. Muzzin (9)
wristxG 0.06win prob +16 pts
1-0
19:14

2nd period

P. Engvall(1)SHG
Unassisted
wristxG 0.23win prob +21 pts
2-0
16:49

3rd period

A. Matthews(15)
W. Nylander (10), I. Mikheyev (10)
wristxG 0.12win prob +8 pts
3-0
0:48
V. Hinostroza(3)
C. Dvorak (6), J. Oesterle (5)
wristxG 0.08
3-1
19:43

Penalties

6 PIM·

0 PIM

2nd

15:36William Nylander · High stickingdrawn by Alex Goligoski2 min

3rd

8:15Jake Muzzin · High stickingdrawn by Vinnie Hinostroza2 min
13:29Morgan Rielly · Trippingdrawn by Conor Garland2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: ARI

Biggest swing: Pierre Engvall, 2nd 16:49 — TOR 65% → 85%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 2.1 xG · 41 att

←

attacks

attacks →

3 G · 2.5 xG · 53 att ARI

1 G · 2.1 xG · 41 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.53 G
All situations: 1 G2.1; 2.32 G
Even strength: 1 G1.6; 0.00 G
Power play: 0 G0.5; 0.21 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 94 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

59%41%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.54 – 2.05

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

33
Shots on goal: 31; 52%
Faceoffs: 48%; 0/0
Power play: 0/3; 6
Penalty minutes: 0; 17
Hits: 28; 14
Blocked shots: 20; 4
Giveaways: 13; 2
Takeaways: 4

Box score

every player line

Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
83C. CeciD	0	0	0	0	0	0.01	1	1	0	—	22:54
44M. RiellyD	0	0	0	+1	1	0.01	2	2	2	—	21:35
8J. MuzzinD	0	1	1	+1	3	0.08	1	0	2	—	20:15
94T. BarrieD	1	0	1	+1	2	0.09	4	1	0	—	20:12
65I. MikheyevR	0	2	2	+2	4	0.31	1	0	0	—	18:32
3J. HollD	0	0	0	+1	2	0.03	2	0	0	—	17:58
34A. MatthewsC	1	0	1	+1	3	0.50	0	0	0	62	17:42
11Z. HymanL	0	0	0	+1	2	0.18	2	2	0	—	17:37
23T. DermottD	0	0	0	0	3	0.04	1	0	0	—	17:18
88W. NylanderR	0	1	1	+1	2	0.12	0	0	2	—	16:50
18A. JohnssonL	0	0	0	0	1	0.22	1	0	0	—	15:49
91J. TavaresC	0	0	0	+1	4	0.30	0	1	0	65	15:49
24K. KapanenR	0	0	0	0	1	0.13	0	1	0	—	14:03
19J. SpezzaC	0	0	0	-1	2	0.06	0	0	0	75	13:37
15A. KerfootC	0	0	0	-1	1	0.11	2	4	0	75	13:26
33F. GauthierC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	1	0	36	10:41
61N. PetanC	0	0	0	0	1	0.12	0	1	0	0	10:20
47P. EngvallL	1	0	1	+1	1	0.24	0	0	0	—	09:22

Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
31F. Andersen(W)	31	30	1	.968	2.08	+1.08	60:00

Season series

TOR leads 2-0

Nov 213@1this game
Feb 112@3OTFinal

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Toronto Maple Leafs at Utah Mammoth

1st period

2nd period

3rd period

2nd

3rd

Box score