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Philadelphia Flyers at Ottawa Senators

FinalTV NBCSP+, TSN5·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the Philadelphia Flyers 2-1. The Flyers scored first; the Senators answered. The Senators led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Filip Chlapik's goal at 17:09 of the second period, which took the Senators' chances from 53% to 74%. Expected goals favored the Flyers, 2.6 to 2.0; shots on goal were PHI 27, OTT 19. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Flyers win a replay of these chances 70% of the time. Carter Hart stopped 17 of 19 (.895); Anders Nilsson stopped 26 of 27 (.963), 1.6 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Anders Nilsson (26 saves, .963), 2. Filip Chlapik (1 G), 3. Tyler Pitlick (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    A. Nilsson26 saves, .963
  2. ★★
    OTT
    F. Chlapik1 G
  3. ★★★
    PHI
    T. Pitlick1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
PHIPHI1100809127
OTTOTT062805219

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

  1. PHI
    wristxG 0.12win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    2:46

2nd period

  1. OTT
    T. Ennis(4)PPG
    wristxG 0.06win prob +19 pts
    1-1
    13:12
  2. OTT
    wristxG 0.06win prob +22 pts
    1-2
    17:09

Penalties

PHI 6 PIM·OTT 10 PIM

1st

  • 10:18OTTVladislav Namestnikov · Boardingdrawn by Jakub Voracek2 min
  • 10:52PHIJakub Voracek · Hookingdrawn by Connor Brown2 min
  • 18:39OTTThomas Chabot · Trippingdrawn by Travis Konecny2 min

2nd

  • 2:00PHIKevin Hayes · Slashingdrawn by Colin White2 min
  • 6:31OTTFilip Chlapik · High stickingdrawn by Shayne Gostisbehere2 min
  • 11:38PHIPhilippe Myers · Hookingdrawn by Chris Tierney2 min

3rd

  • 15:43OTTColin White · High sticking double minordrawn by Claude Giroux4 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalPHI goalFinal: OTT 100%

Biggest swing: Filip Chlapik, 2nd 17:09 — OTT 53% → 74%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. Hainsey · Missed · xG 0.45T. Ennis · On goal · xG 0.19B. Ryan · Missed · xG 0.11A. Duclair · On goal · xG 0.11B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.09B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.09C. Brown · Missed · xG 0.08C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.08A. Duclair · Missed · xG 0.07F. Chlapik · On goal · xG 0.07N. Paul · Missed · xG 0.07T. Ennis · On goal · xG 0.07T. Ennis · Goal · xG 0.06F. Chlapik · Goal · xG 0.06N. Paul · Missed · xG 0.06C. Brown · Missed · xG 0.06L. Brown · Missed · xG 0.05T. Ennis · On goal · xG 0.04A. Duclair · On goal · xG 0.04T. Ennis · Missed · xG 0.03E. Brannstrom · Missed · xG 0.02M. Borowiecki · On goal · xG 0.01D. DeMelo · On goal · xG 0.01T. Chabot · Missed · xG 0.01N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.01T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.01C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.01E. Brannstrom · Missed · xG 0.01L. Brown · Missed · xG 0.01M. Borowiecki · On goal · xG 0.00M. Borowiecki · On goal · xG 0.00F. Chlapik · On goal · xG 0.00T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.00
OTT2 G · 2.0 xG · 33 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

PHIvsOTT
2.61 G
All situations
2 G2.0
1.61 G
Even strength
1 G1.2
0.80 G
Power play
1 G0.3
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 67 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
PHI70%30%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.55 – 1.55

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

PHIvsOTT
27
Shots on goal
19
57%
Faceoffs
43%
0/5
Power play
1/3
6
Penalty minutes
10
21
Hits
32
15
Blocked shots
12
5
Giveaways
8
2
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Philadelphia Flyers skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
53S. GostisbehereD000020.18230—23:45
28C. GirouxR000050.381006422:51
9I. ProvorovD000-100.00110—22:40
15M. NiskanenD000-110.02210—22:32
14S. CouturierC000-140.51220019:51
25J. van RiemsdykL000030.29000—17:58
49J. FarabeeL000050.65000—17:46
11T. KonecnyR000-120.191203317:24
23O. LindblomL000-130.221006717:10
13K. HayesR000000.003024016:54
61J. BraunD000000.00010—16:03
93J. VoracekR000000.0000210015:53
6T. SanheimD000+110.02110—15:01
5P. MyersD000+100.00102—14:12
12M. RafflL000+100.000007011:16
18T. PitlickC101+110.12120009:00
81C. TwarynskiL000000.00410—08:47
10A. AndreoffC011+100.00110007:55
Philadelphia Flyers goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
79C. Hart(L)19172.8951.55-0.4557:28

Season series

PHI leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).