Islanders at Sabres 1-0 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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New York Islanders

▸1

Buffalo Sabres

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Recap

written from the game data

The New York Islanders beat the Buffalo Sabres 1-0. The Islanders scored first and never trailed. The Islanders led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Derick Brassard's goal at 5:19 of the first period, which took the Islanders' chances from 46% to 59%. Expected goals were close — NYI 2.0, BUF 2.1; shots on goal were NYI 21, BUF 27. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 52% of the time. Semyon Varlamov stopped 27 of 27 (1.000), 2.1 goals saved above expected; Carter Hutton stopped 20 of 21 (.952), 1.0 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Semyon Varlamov (27 saves, 1.000), 2. Derick Brassard (1 G), 3. Carter Hutton (20 saves, .952).

Three stars

★
S. Varlamov27 saves, 1.000
★★
D. Brassard1 G
★★★
C. Hutton20 saves, .952

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYI	110	07	04	121
BUF	06	010	011	027

Scoring

1 goal

1st period

D. Brassard(5)
A. Beauvillier (6)
wristxG 0.07win prob +12 pts
1-0
5:19

Penalties

6 PIM·

2 PIM

1st

8:38Oliver Wahlstrom · Holdingdrawn by Jeff Skinner2 min

2nd

5:45Jake McCabe · Slashingdrawn by Mathew Barzal2 min
14:07Ryan Pulock · Holdingdrawn by Jimmy Vesey2 min

3rd

1:23served by R. Johnston · Too many men on the ice2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: BUF

Biggest swing: Derick Brassard, 1st 5:19 — NYI 46% → 59%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

0 G · 2.1 xG · 44 att

←

attacks

attacks →

1 G · 2.0 xG · 30 att BUF

0 G · 2.1 xG · 44 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.01 G
All situations: 0 G2.1; 1.91 G
Even strength: 0 G1.9; 0.00 G
Power play: 0 G0.2; 0.00 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 74 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

48%52%

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.93 – 2.06

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

21
Shots on goal: 27; 50%
Faceoffs: 50%; 0/1
Power play: 0/3; 6
Penalty minutes: 2; 19
Hits: 12; 14
Blocked shots: 9; 6
Giveaways: 5; 7
Takeaways: 2

Box score

every player line

New York Islanders skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
3A. PelechD	0	0	0	+1	1	0.01	2	2	0	—	24:42
24S. MayfieldD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	1	0	—	23:08
6R. PulockD	0	0	0	+1	2	0.14	1	0	2	—	21:08
12J. BaileyR	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	3	0	—	20:53
25D. ToewsD	0	0	0	0	1	0.04	1	1	0	—	20:14
13M. BarzalC	0	0	0	0	1	0.05	0	0	0	17	19:54
27A. LeeL	0	0	0	0	1	0.19	0	1	0	—	19:33
55J. BoychukD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	2	0	—	18:12
29B. NelsonC	0	0	0	+1	2	0.50	0	0	0	38	17:16
53C. CizikasC	0	0	0	0	1	0.18	2	1	0	86	17:04
15C. ClutterbuckR	0	0	0	0	4	0.24	4	0	0	—	16:51
18A. BeauvillierR	0	1	1	+1	3	0.22	0	0	0	—	14:37
10D. BrassardC	1	0	1	+1	2	0.12	0	0	0	0	14:00
28M. Dal ColleL	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	2	0	—	13:13
8N. DobsonD	0	0	0	0	2	0.30	0	1	0	—	11:52
26O. WahlstromR	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	2	—	08:33
32R. JohnstonL	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	—	06:40
34C. BardreauC	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	3	0	0	67	06:10

New York Islanders goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
40S. Varlamov(W)	27	27	0	1.000	2.07	+2.07	60:00

Season series

NYI leads 2-0

Nov 21@0this game
Dec 142@3OTFinal

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

New York Islanders at Buffalo Sabres

1st period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score