Bruins at Stars 2-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Boston Bruins

▸2

Dallas Stars

FinalTV FS-SW, NESN·American Airlines Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Boston Bruins beat the Dallas Stars 2-1. The Bruins scored first and never trailed. The Bruins led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Roope Hintz's goal at 7:55 of the second period, which took the Stars' chances from 18% to 35%. Expected goals favored the Stars, 2.0 to 1.5; shots on goal were BOS 20, DAL 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Stars win a replay of these chances 59% of the time. Tuukka Rask stopped 28 of 29 (.966), 1.0 goals saved above expected; Ben Bishop stopped 18 of 20 (.900). Three stars: 1. Brett Ritchie (1 G), 2. Danton Heinen (1 G), 3. Roope Hintz (1 G).

Three stars

★
B. Ritchie1 G
★★
D. Heinen1 G
★★★
R. Hintz1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
BOS	26	07	07	220
DAL	04	19	016	129

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

B. Ritchie(1)
C. Coyle (1)
snapxG 0.02win prob +11 pts
1-0
1:09
D. Heinen(1)PPG
M. Grzelcyk (1), C. McAvoy (1)
wristxG 0.05win prob +13 pts
2-0
5:59

2nd period

R. Hintz(1)
M. Janmark (1), J. Pavelski (1)
wristxG 0.14win prob +17 pts
2-1
7:55

Penalties

4 PIM·

8 PIM

1st

4:23Alexander Radulov · Holdingdrawn by Par Lindholm2 min
17:33Radek Faksa · High stickingdrawn by Sean Kuraly2 min

2nd

9:30Alexander Radulov · Trippingdrawn by Par Lindholm2 min
16:00Mattias Janmark · Interferencedrawn by Charlie McAvoy2 min
17:12Charlie McAvoy · Interferencedrawn by Tyler Seguin2 min

3rd

0:45Zdeno Chara · Interferencedrawn by Andrew Cogliano2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: DAL

Biggest swing: Roope Hintz, 2nd 7:55 — DAL 18% → 35%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 2.0 xG · 39 att

←

attacks

attacks →

2 G · 1.5 xG · 33 att DAL

1 G · 2.0 xG · 39 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

1.52 G
All situations: 1 G2.0; 1.11 G
Even strength: 1 G1.2; 0.41 G
Power play: 0 G0.8; 0.00 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 72 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

41%59%

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.54 – 1.94

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

20
Shots on goal: 29; 47%
Faceoffs: 53%; 1/4
Power play: 0/2; 4
Penalty minutes: 8; 12
Hits: 15; 16
Blocked shots: 18; 10
Giveaways: 17; 5
Takeaways: 8

Box score

every player line

Boston Bruins skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
73C. McAvoyD	0	1	1	-1	0	0.02	3	4	2	—	22:08
48M. GrzelcykD	0	1	1	-1	1	0.02	0	0	0	—	19:52
25B. CarloD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.01	0	1	0	—	19:34
47T. KrugD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	0	1	0	—	19:29
33Z. CharaD	0	0	0	0	3	0.11	0	3	2	—	19:24
63B. MarchandL	0	0	0	0	1	0.07	1	1	0	—	18:58
37P. BergeronC	0	0	0	0	2	0.14	0	1	0	40	18:31
13C. CoyleC	0	1	1	0	1	0.05	0	0	0	55	16:49
88D. PastrnakR	0	0	0	-1	0	0.11	0	1	0	—	16:47
43D. HeinenL	1	0	1	0	1	0.09	1	0	0	—	16:41
75C. CliftonD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	1	0	—	15:34
74J. DeBruskL	0	0	0	0	3	0.22	0	0	0	100	14:58
83K. KuhlmanC	0	0	0	0	2	0.28	0	0	0	0	14:20
26P. LindholmC	0	0	0	0	0	0.02	0	1	0	55	14:18
18B. RitchieR	1	0	1	+1	2	0.15	2	0	0	—	12:55
14C. WagnerR	0	0	0	0	0	0.04	0	2	0	63	12:40
52S. KuralyC	0	0	0	0	1	0.04	2	0	0	20	12:29
42D. BackesR	0	0	0	0	3	0.15	1	0	0	—	10:45

Boston Bruins goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
40T. Rask(W)	29	28	1	.966	2.03	+1.03	59:48

Season series

BOS leads 2-0

Oct 32@1this game
Feb 273@4Final

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Boston Bruins at Dallas Stars

1st period

2nd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score