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Wild at Golden Knights
NHL

Minnesota Wild at Vegas Golden Knights

NHL scoreboard
Minnesota Wild
▸3
Vegas Golden Knights
2
FinalTV ESPN+, ATTSN-RM·T-Mobile Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Minnesota Wild beat the Vegas Golden Knights 3-2. The Wild scored first and never trailed. The Wild led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Paul Stastny's goal at 8:52 of the third period, which took the Golden Knights' chances from 6% to 21%. Expected goals favored the Golden Knights, 3.1 to 2.4; shots on goal were MIN 32, VGK 37. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Golden Knights win a replay of these chances 64% of the time. Devan Dubnyk stopped 35 of 37 (.946), 1.1 goals saved above expected; Malcolm Subban stopped 29 of 32 (.906), 0.6 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Paul Stastny (2 G), 2. Mark Stone (1 A), 3. Jason Zucker (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    VGK
    P. Stastny2 G
  2. ★★
    VGK
    M. Stone1 A
  3. ★★★
    MIN
    J. Zucker2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
MINMIN21211505332
VGKVGK010116111237

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. MIN
    G. Pateryn(1)
    N. Seeler (5), R. Donato (15)
    snapxG 0.02win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    2:12
  2. MIN
    E. Staal(22)PPG
    J. Zucker (19), J. Spurgeon (29)
    deflectedxG 0.14win prob +13 pts
    2-0
    19:38

2nd period

  1. MIN
    K. Fiala(13)PPG
    J. Zucker (20), E. Staal (30)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +7 pts
    3-0
    11:22
  2. VGK
    P. Stastny(12)
    S. Theodore (25), M. Stone (40)
    snapxG 0.17win prob +7 pts
    3-1
    18:00

3rd period

  1. VGK
    P. Stastny(13)
    M. Pacioretty (18), C. Miller (26)
    snapxG 0.16win prob +15 pts
    3-2
    8:52

Penalties

MIN 4 PIM·VGK 8 PIM

1st

  • 19:18VGKDeryk Engelland · Trippingdrawn by Jason Zucker2 min

2nd

  • 1:44VGKJonathan Marchessault · Holding the stickdrawn by Joel Eriksson Ek2 min
  • 10:51VGKBrayden McNabb · Trippingdrawn by JT Brown2 min
  • 15:56MINJoel Eriksson Ek · Hookingdrawn by Mark Stone2 min

3rd

  • 1:24VGKJon Merrill · Holdingdrawn by Luke Kunin2 min
  • 5:29MINKevin Fiala · Slashingdrawn by Mark Stone2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
VGK goalMIN goalFinal: VGK 0%

Biggest swing: Paul Stastny, 3rd 8:52 — VGK 6% → 21%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
P. Stastny · On goal · xG 0.24M. Pacioretty · On goal · xG 0.22M. Stone · Missed · xG 0.20A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.19P. Stastny · Goal · xG 0.17P. Stastny · Goal · xG 0.16M. Stone · On goal · xG 0.16M. Stone · On goal · xG 0.14P. Stastny · Missed · xG 0.13C. Eakin · On goal · xG 0.13P. Stastny · On goal · xG 0.13M. Pacioretty · On goal · xG 0.10C. Eakin · On goal · xG 0.09M. Stone · On goal · xG 0.07M. Stone · On goal · xG 0.06N. Schmidt · Missed · xG 0.06M. Stone · On goal · xG 0.06J. Marchessault · Missed · xG 0.06A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.05J. Marchessault · On goal · xG 0.05S. Theodore · Missed · xG 0.04T. Nosek · On goal · xG 0.04S. Theodore · On goal · xG 0.04M. Stone · On goal · xG 0.04A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.04R. Smith · On goal · xG 0.04M. Stone · On goal · xG 0.04M. Pacioretty · On goal · xG 0.03P. Stastny · On goal · xG 0.03S. Theodore · On goal · xG 0.03M. Pacioretty · On goal · xG 0.02C. Miller · Missed · xG 0.02T. Nosek · Missed · xG 0.02A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.02C. Miller · Missed · xG 0.02A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.02S. Theodore · Missed · xG 0.02C. Miller · On goal · xG 0.02J. Marchessault · On goal · xG 0.02J. Marchessault · On goal · xG 0.02M. Pacioretty · Missed · xG 0.02C. Miller · Missed · xG 0.01C. Eakin · On goal · xG 0.01C. Miller · On goal · xG 0.01S. Theodore · On goal · xG 0.01W. Carrier · On goal · xG 0.01M. Pacioretty · On goal · xG 0.01W. Carrier · Missed · xG 0.00C. Eakin · On goal · xG 0.00N. Schmidt · On goal · xG 0.00R. Carpenter · On goal · xG 0.00
VGK2 G · 3.1 xG · 51 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

MINvsVGK
2.43 G
All situations
2 G3.1
1.21 G
Even strength
2 G2.1
1.22 G
Power play
0 G1.0
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 93 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
MIN36%64%VGK

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.30 – 3.09

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

MINvsVGK
32
Shots on goal
37
52%
Faceoffs
48%
2/4
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
8
30
Hits
28
23
Blocked shots
13
3
Giveaways
7
10
Takeaways
18

Box score

every player line
Minnesota Wild skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
46J. SpurgeonD011-200.00150—27:17
20R. SuterD000-210.04300—27:00
19L. KuninC000-110.03220018:59
25J. BrodinD000010.06150—18:49
12E. StaalC112-160.421006017:19
77B. HuntD000030.35100—16:49
22K. FialaL101040.34012—16:34
29G. PaterynD101+130.06800—15:56
17M. FolignoL000+130.14010—15:49
16J. ZuckerL022-150.660105015:41
18J. GreenwayL000010.02210—15:39
14J. Eriksson EkC000-100.003023015:02
21E. FehrC000+100.001205013:25
10M. ReadR000-110.06000—13:24
23J. BrownR000010.19320—12:50
36N. SeelerD011+100.00410—12:44
49V. RaskC000020.020107811:47
6R. DonatoC011000.06010011:11
Minnesota Wild goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40D. Dubnyk(W)37352.9463.14+1.1459:49

Season series

MIN leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).