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Avalanche at Stars
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
▸3
Dallas Stars
1
FinalTV FS-SW+, ALT·American Airlines Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Dallas Stars 3-1. The Avalanche scored first and never trailed. The Avalanche led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Erik Johnson's goal at 17:20 of the second period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 47% to 70%. Expected goals favored the Stars, 4.5 to 3.1; shots on goal were COL 32, DAL 45. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Stars win a replay of these chances 72% of the time. Philipp Grubauer stopped 44 of 45 (.978), 3.5 goals saved above expected; Ben Bishop stopped 29 of 31 (.935), 0.9 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Philipp Grubauer (44 saves, .978), 2. Nathan MacKinnon, 3. Tyler Seguin (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    P. Grubauer44 saves, .978
  2. ★★
    COL
    N. MacKinnon
  3. ★★★
    DAL
    T. Seguin1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL01318211332
DALDAL09012124145

Scoring

4 goals

2nd period

  1. COL
    E. Johnson(6)
    S. Girard (18), C. Wilson (12)
    slapxG 0.03win prob +23 pts
    1-0
    17:20

3rd period

  1. COL
    T. Barrie(11)
    S. Girard (19)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +17 pts
    2-0
    5:19
  2. DAL
    T. Seguin(28)
    J. Klingberg (30), M. Heiskanen (20)
    tip-inxG 0.12win prob +10 pts
    2-1
    14:59
  3. COL
    C. Soderberg(22)EN
    Unassisted
    snapxG 0.22win prob +5 pts
    3-1
    19:11

Penalties

COL 4 PIM·DAL 6 PIM

1st

  • 5:07DALRadek Faksa · Trippingdrawn by Mikko Rantanen2 min
  • 10:31DALJoel L'Esperance · High stickingdrawn by Samuel Girard2 min

2nd

  • 2:44COLMatt Calvert · Interferencedrawn by Jamie Benn2 min
  • 13:29DALBen Lovejoy · Hookingdrawn by Tyson Barrie2 min

3rd

  • 10:20COLNikita Zadorov · Interferencedrawn by Tyler Seguin2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DAL goalCOL goalFinal: DAL 0%

Biggest swing: Erik Johnson, 2nd 17:20 — COL 47% → 70%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.39R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.32B. Comeau · Missed · xG 0.22A. Radulov · On goal · xG 0.19J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.18J. Dickinson · On goal · xG 0.16A. Radulov · On goal · xG 0.16T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.15B. Comeau · On goal · xG 0.15J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.15J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.15A. Radulov · Missed · xG 0.13T. Seguin · Goal · xG 0.12T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.11J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.10B. Comeau · Missed · xG 0.10J. Spezza · On goal · xG 0.10J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.10A. Radulov · On goal · xG 0.09A. Radulov · Missed · xG 0.09T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.09J. L'Esperance · On goal · xG 0.09T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.08J. Dickinson · On goal · xG 0.08J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.08T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.07M. Heiskanen · Missed · xG 0.05A. Radulov · On goal · xG 0.05R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.05J. Dickinson · On goal · xG 0.05T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.05B. Ritchie · On goal · xG 0.04J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.04J. Klingberg · Missed · xG 0.04M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.04J. Klingberg · On goal · xG 0.03R. Faksa · On goal · xG 0.03J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.03J. Klingberg · On goal · xG 0.03J. Spezza · Missed · xG 0.03T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.03M. Janmark · On goal · xG 0.03A. Radulov · Missed · xG 0.03M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.03T. Fedun · On goal · xG 0.02M. Heiskanen · Missed · xG 0.02T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.02J. Dickinson · On goal · xG 0.02J. Klingberg · On goal · xG 0.02T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.01B. Lovejoy · On goal · xG 0.01B. Lovejoy · On goal · xG 0.01E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.01J. Klingberg · Missed · xG 0.00T. Fedun · On goal · xG 0.00R. Polak · Missed · xG 0.00
DAL1 G · 4.5 xG · 56 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsDAL
3.12 G
All situations
1 G4.5
2.42 G
Even strength
1 G3.0
0.50 G
Power play
0 G1.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 98 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL28%72%DAL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.86 – 4.35

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsDAL
32
Shots on goal
45
42%
Faceoffs
58%
0/3
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
6
17
Hits
27
25
Blocked shots
12
4
Giveaways
10
6
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
29N. MacKinnonC000+191.021203823:13
34C. SoderbergC101+220.340105320:50
6E. JohnsonD101+120.04220—20:36
37J. CompherL000020.190002020:24
4T. BarrieD101+140.10180—19:53
96M. RantanenR000+100.00110—19:37
13A. KerfootC000050.370108018:55
16N. ZadorovD000020.11322—18:42
49S. GirardD022+100.0201010018:00
22C. WilsonC011010.35010016:28
28I. ColeD000+100.04220—15:56
18D. BrassardC000+200.080002515:26
11M. CalvertL000010.0431210014:59
12P. NemethD000010.02010—14:09
17T. JostC000030.37100012:26
10S. AndrighettoR000000.00020—10:28
57G. BourqueL000000.01300—09:39
27R. GravesD000000.02000—06:19
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31P. Grubauer(W)45441.9784.46+3.4660:00

Season series

COL leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).