Blues at Ducks 5-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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St. Louis Blues

▸5

Anaheim Ducks

FinalTV FS-MW, FS-W·Honda Center

Recap

written from the game data

The St. Louis Blues beat the Anaheim Ducks 5-1. The Ducks scored first; the Blues answered. The Blues led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Oskar Sundqvist's goal at 7:41 of the second period, which took the Blues' chances from 65% to 82%. Expected goals favored the Blues, 4.5 to 1.5; shots on goal were STL 32, ANA 13. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Blues win a replay of these chances 90% of the time. Jordan Binnington stopped 12 of 13 (.923), 0.5 goals saved above expected; John Gibson stopped 26 of 31 (.839), 0.8 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Zachary Sanford (1 G, 1 A), 2. Ryan O'Reilly (1 A), 3. Daniel Sprong (1 G).

Three stars

★
Z. Sanford1 G, 1 A
★★
R. O'Reilly1 A
★★★
D. Sprong1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
STL	113	213	26	532
ANA	12	07	04	113

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

D. Sprong(8)
R. Getzlaf (23), H. Lindholm (15)
wristxG 0.12win prob +12 pts
0-1
6:44
V. Tarasenko(17)
B. Schenn (18), R. O'Reilly (32)
wristxG 0.17win prob +13 pts
1-1
10:34

2nd period

Z. Sanford(6)
Unassisted
wristxG 0.20win prob +16 pts
2-1
2:04
O. Sundqvist(10)
P. Maroon (10), Z. Sanford (7)
wristxG 0.13win prob +17 pts
3-1
7:41

3rd period

T. Bozak(7)
J. Schwartz (18), C. Parayko (5)
wristxG 0.31win prob +5 pts
4-1
8:42
S. Blais(2)
M. MacEachern (1), C. Gunnarsson (4)
wristxG 0.20win prob +1 pts
5-1
9:16

Penalties

2 PIM·

0 PIM

3rd

10:35Tyler Bozak · High stickingdrawn by Max Jones2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: ANA

Biggest swing: Oskar Sundqvist, 2nd 7:41 — STL 65% → 82%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 1.5 xG · 30 att

←

attacks

attacks →

5 G · 4.5 xG · 56 att ANA

1 G · 1.5 xG · 30 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

4.55 G
All situations: 1 G1.5; 4.55 G
Even strength: 1 G1.5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 86 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

90%10%

Flurry-adjusted xG 4.44 – 1.50

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

32
Shots on goal: 13; 49%
Faceoffs: 51%; 0/0
Power play: 0/1; 2
Penalty minutes: 0; 25
Hits: 32; 16
Blocked shots: 12; 13
Giveaways: 16; 9
Takeaways: 5

Box score

every player line

St. Louis Blues skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
19J. BouwmeesterD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	4	0	—	23:01
55C. ParaykoD	0	1	1	0	2	0.06	1	2	0	—	21:35
27A. PietrangeloD	0	0	0	+2	2	0.05	1	0	0	—	20:00
4C. GunnarssonD	0	1	1	+3	0	0.21	1	2	0	—	19:52
90R. O'ReillyC	0	1	1	+1	3	0.43	3	0	0	45	19:01
6J. EdmundsonD	0	0	0	+1	1	0.04	4	3	0	—	17:55
29V. DunnD	0	0	0	+2	1	0.14	0	2	0	—	17:37
91V. TarasenkoR	1	0	1	+1	3	0.29	2	0	0	—	17:29
10B. SchennC	0	1	1	+1	3	0.65	4	1	0	0	17:06
70O. SundqvistC	1	0	1	+1	2	0.37	2	0	0	36	16:59
17J. SchwartzL	0	1	1	+1	3	0.36	1	1	0	100	15:46
7P. MaroonL	0	1	1	+1	1	0.04	2	0	0	—	15:21
12Z. SanfordL	1	1	2	+1	3	0.28	0	0	0	—	15:19
20A. SteenL	0	0	0	+1	0	0.14	0	0	0	—	14:25
21T. BozakC	1	0	1	+1	1	0.61	0	0	2	62	13:50
49I. BarbashevL	0	0	0	+1	0	0.11	0	1	0	43	12:12
9S. BlaisL	1	0	1	+1	3	0.44	2	0	0	—	10:37
62M. MacEachernL	0	1	1	+1	4	0.27	2	0	0	—	09:55

St. Louis Blues goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
50J. Binnington(W)	13	12	1	.923	1.50	+0.50	60:00

Season series

STL leads 2-1

Oct 143@2Final
Jan 235@1this game
Mar 65@4Final

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

St. Louis Blues at Anaheim Ducks

1st period

2nd period

3rd period

3rd

Box score