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Predators at Senators
NHL

Nashville Predators at Ottawa Senators

NHL scoreboard
Nashville Predators
3
Ottawa Senators
▸4
Final/OTTV FS-TN, TSN5·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the Nashville Predators 4-3 in overtime, Thomas Chabot scoring at 0:21. The Senators scored first and never trailed. The Senators led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Thomas Chabot's goal at 0:21 of overtime, which took the Senators' chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals were close — NSH 1.9, OTT 1.9; shots on goal were NSH 34, OTT 23. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Predators win a replay of these chances 51% of the time. Juuse Saros stopped 11 of 12 (.917); Craig Anderson stopped 31 of 34 (.912), 1.1 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Thomas Chabot (1 G), 2. Mark Stone (2 A), 3. Brady Tkachuk (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    T. Chabot1 G
  2. ★★
    OTT
    M. Stone2 A
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    B. Tkachuk1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
NSHNSH0911521000334
OTTOTT311070411423

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. OTT
    M. Lajoie(7)PPG
    M. Boedker (16), D. Batherson (5)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +10 pts
    0-1
    2:25
  2. OTT
    B. Tkachuk(10)
    M. Stone (22), C. White (14)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +14 pts
    0-2
    5:22
  3. OTT
    R. Dzingel(13)
    M. Stone (23)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +9 pts
    0-3
    19:48

2nd period

  1. NSH
    R. Josi(6)PPG
    R. Ellis (12), R. Johansen (22)
    wristxG 0.20win prob +7 pts
    1-3
    5:37

3rd period

  1. NSH
    C. Smith(10)PPG
    R. Josi (19), R. Johansen (23)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +12 pts
    2-3
    0:46
  2. NSH
    R. Josi(7)
    K. Fiala (11), R. Johansen (24)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +27 pts
    3-3
    6:56

Overtime

  1. OTT
    T. Chabot(10)
    R. Dzingel (12)
    snapxG 0.14win prob +49 pts
    3-4
    0:21

Penalties

NSH 11 PIM·OTT 15 PIM

1st

  • 1:03NSHRoman Josi · High stickingdrawn by Thomas Chabot2 min
  • 13:43OTTMark Stone · Holdingdrawn by Calle Jarnkrok2 min
  • 17:18NSHserved by K. Fiala · Too many men on the ice2 min

2nd

  • 4:16OTTJustin Falk · Interferencedrawn by Kyle Turris2 min
  • 8:02OTTRyan Dzingel · Slashingdrawn by Rocco Grimaldi2 min
  • 12:05NSHKyle Turris · Fightingdrawn by Bobby Ryan5 min
  • 12:05OTTBobby Ryan · Fightingdrawn by Kyle Turris5 min

3rd

  • 0:09OTTMaxime Lajoie · Trippingdrawn by Calle Jarnkrok2 min
  • 13:24NSHserved by K. Fiala · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 16:35OTTJustin Falk · Trippingdrawn by Rocco Grimaldi2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalNSH goalFinal: OTT 100%

Biggest swing: Thomas Chabot, OT 0:21 — OTT 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
C. Tierney · On goal · xG 0.48D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.17B. Tkachuk · Goal · xG 0.14R. Dzingel · Goal · xG 0.14T. Chabot · Goal · xG 0.14Z. Smith · On goal · xG 0.13C. White · Missed · xG 0.11M. Lajoie · Goal · xG 0.09C. Ceci · On goal · xG 0.07M. Paajarvi · On goal · xG 0.06M. Paajarvi · Missed · xG 0.05C. White · On goal · xG 0.04C. Tierney · On goal · xG 0.04M. Paajarvi · Missed · xG 0.03Z. Smith · Missed · xG 0.03M. Lajoie · On goal · xG 0.02M. Stone · On goal · xG 0.02C. Tierney · On goal · xG 0.02C. Tierney · On goal · xG 0.01T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.01B. Ryan · Missed · xG 0.01D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.01C. Ceci · Missed · xG 0.01B. Harpur · Missed · xG 0.01M. Borowiecki · Missed · xG 0.01M. Borowiecki · On goal · xG 0.01C. White · On goal · xG 0.01C. Tierney · On goal · xG 0.00T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.00M. Paajarvi · On goal · xG 0.00T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.00
OTT4 G · 1.9 xG · 31 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NSHvsOTT
1.93 G
All situations
4 G1.9
1.41 G
Even strength
3 G1.8
0.52 G
Power play
1 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 73 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NSH51%49%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.91 – 1.87

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NSHvsOTT
34
Shots on goal
23
53%
Faceoffs
47%
2/5
Power play
1/3
11
Penalty minutes
15
27
Hits
23
11
Blocked shots
19
14
Giveaways
14
9
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Nashville Predators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
14M. EkholmD000010.01130—24:54
59R. JosiD213-260.51122—23:54
4R. EllisD011-120.11010—23:07
5D. HamhuisD000030.03100—21:58
10C. SissonsC000010.320105020:03
19C. JarnkrokC000030.2100010018:34
92R. JohansenC033-100.001005016:55
15C. SmithC101-170.24000016:39
22K. FialaL011-100.00100—16:14
8K. TurrisC000-110.020054416:07
38R. HartmanR000-110.02300—15:58
51A. WatsonL000030.33720—15:55
13N. BoninoC000010.013105014:18
52M. IrwinD000020.01210—11:55
7Y. WeberD000010.00400—11:19
20M. SalomakiR000010.04200—09:49
89F. GaudreauC000000.001007509:47
23R. GrimaldiR000010.07000—08:33
Nashville Predators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
74J. Saros(O)12111.9171.000.0040:21
35P. Rinne1183.7270.89-2.1119:42

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).