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Senators at Predators
NHL

Ottawa Senators at Nashville Predators

NHL scoreboard
Ottawa Senators
1
Nashville Predators
▸3
FinalTV FS-TN, TSN5·Bridgestone Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the Ottawa Senators 3-1. The Senators scored first; the Predators answered. The Predators led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Ryan Ellis's goal at 9:01 of the second period, which took the Predators' chances from 53% to 71%. Expected goals favored the Predators, 2.6 to 1.7; shots on goal were OTT 26, NSH 36. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Predators win a replay of these chances 67% of the time. Craig Anderson stopped 33 of 36 (.917); Pekka Rinne stopped 25 of 26 (.962), 0.7 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Pekka Rinne (25 saves, .962), 2. Austin Watson (1 G), 3. Ryan Ellis (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NSH
    P. Rinne25 saves, .962
  2. ★★
    NSH
    A. Watson1 G
  3. ★★★
    NSH
    R. Ellis1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
OTTOTT1808010126
NSHNSH18115113336

Scoring

4 goals

1st period

  1. OTT
    Z. Smith(5)
    R. Dzingel (10), C. Ceci (5)
    backhandxG 0.02win prob +11 pts
    1-0
    0:26
  2. NSH
    A. Watson(6)
    M. Ekholm (16), C. Sissons (8)
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +14 pts
    1-1
    15:38

2nd period

  1. NSH
    R. Ellis(3)
    R. Josi (17), R. Johansen (21)
    slapxG 0.13win prob +18 pts
    1-2
    9:01

3rd period

  1. NSH
    C. Smith(9)
    Unassisted
    backhandxG 0.04win prob +16 pts
    1-3
    1:59

Penalties

OTT 4 PIM·NSH 6 PIM

1st

  • 5:25NSHRyan Hartman · Trippingdrawn by Colin White2 min

2nd

  • 16:15NSHKevin Fiala · High sticking double minordrawn by Brady Tkachuk4 min

3rd

  • 2:06OTTChris Tierney · Trippingdrawn by Frederick Gaudreau2 min
  • 5:09OTTBrady Tkachuk · Trippingdrawn by Austin Watson2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NSH goalOTT goalFinal: NSH 100%

Biggest swing: Ryan Ellis, 2nd 9:01 — NSH 53% → 71%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Watson · On goal · xG 0.23M. Salomaki · Missed · xG 0.16K. Fiala · On goal · xG 0.16K. Fiala · On goal · xG 0.15C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.13C. Sissons · Missed · xG 0.13R. Ellis · Goal · xG 0.13A. Watson · Goal · xG 0.09C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.09A. Watson · On goal · xG 0.08C. Sissons · Missed · xG 0.08E. Tolvanen · Missed · xG 0.08A. Watson · Missed · xG 0.07C. Sissons · Missed · xG 0.07A. Watson · Missed · xG 0.07R. Hartman · On goal · xG 0.07K. Fiala · Missed · xG 0.06R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.06R. Hartman · Missed · xG 0.05R. Hartman · Missed · xG 0.05C. Smith · Goal · xG 0.04M. Ekholm · Missed · xG 0.04R. Johansen · On goal · xG 0.04R. Hartman · On goal · xG 0.04R. Ellis · On goal · xG 0.04M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.03M. Salomaki · On goal · xG 0.03M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.03C. Sissons · On goal · xG 0.03C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.03R. Ellis · On goal · xG 0.03Y. Weber · On goal · xG 0.02R. Johansen · On goal · xG 0.02A. Bitetto · On goal · xG 0.02Y. Weber · On goal · xG 0.02D. Hamhuis · On goal · xG 0.02M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.02R. Hartman · On goal · xG 0.02M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.02M. Salomaki · On goal · xG 0.02M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.02R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.02C. Sissons · On goal · xG 0.01R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.01A. Bitetto · On goal · xG 0.01A. Bitetto · On goal · xG 0.01R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.01R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.00
NSH3 G · 2.6 xG · 48 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

OTTvsNSH
1.71 G
All situations
3 G2.6
1.61 G
Even strength
3 G2.1
0.10 G
Power play
0 G0.5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 82 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
OTT33%67%NSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.71 – 2.61

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

OTTvsNSH
26
Shots on goal
36
39%
Faceoffs
61%
0/3
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
6
19
Hits
18
18
Blocked shots
11
8
Giveaways
6
3
Takeaways
18

Box score

every player line
Ottawa Senators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
72T. ChabotD000-110.06080—26:59
61M. StoneR000030.2601010026:17
5C. CeciD011020.04110—22:29
7B. TkachukL000040.39312—20:45
36C. WhiteC000010.131002120:33
18R. DzingelC011-150.330002519:10
71C. TierneyC000010.021026219:10
58M. LajoieD000010.00010—19:08
15Z. SmithC101-120.232004717:42
67B. HarpurD000-100.03310—16:50
89M. BoedkerL000-100.00000—16:25
56M. PaajarviL000-110.07010—15:38
79D. BathersonR000010.05110—14:16
42J. FalkD000-120.06410—13:52
29S. ElliottD000-110.03110—12:43
10T. PyattL000-100.01010—06:07
17M. McCormickL000-100.01000—05:18
46E. BurgdoerferD000010.01200—04:25
Ottawa Senators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
41C. Anderson(L)36333.9172.62-0.3858:13

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).