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Philadelphia Flyers at Edmonton Oilers

FinalTV NBCSP+, SNW·Rogers Place

Recap

written from the game data

The Edmonton Oilers beat the Philadelphia Flyers 4-1. The Oilers scored first and never trailed. The Oilers led 3-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Connor McDavid's goal at 12:37 of the second period, which took the Oilers' chances from 72% to 88%. Expected goals were close — PHI 2.5, EDM 2.6; shots on goal were PHI 32, EDM 22. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Flyers win a replay of these chances 66% of the time. Anthony Stolarz stopped 18 of 21 (.857), 1.3 goals below expected; Mikko Koskinen stopped 31 of 32 (.969), 1.5 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Mikko Koskinen (31 saves, .969), 2. Connor McDavid (2 G, 1 A), 3. Alex Chiasson (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    EDM
    M. Koskinen31 saves, .969
  2. ★★
    EDM
    C. McDavid2 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    EDM
    A. Chiasson1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
PHIPHI09010113132
EDMEDM172817422

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. EDM
    snapxG 0.20win prob +13 pts
    0-1
    12:37

2nd period

  1. EDM
    wristxG 0.05win prob +16 pts
    0-2
    12:37
  2. EDM
    wristxG 0.05win prob +8 pts
    0-3
    14:08

3rd period

  1. PHI
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +3 pts
    1-3
    10:03
  2. EDM
    wristxG 0.91
    1-4
    19:24

Penalties

PHI 4 PIM·EDM 10 PIM

1st

  • 13:49EDMJason Garrison · Hookingdrawn by Oskar Lindblom2 min
  • 16:26PHIClaude Giroux · Slashingdrawn by Leon Draisaitl2 min

2nd

  • 3:25EDMDrake Caggiula · High sticking double minordrawn by Nolan Patrick4 min
  • 8:42PHIWayne Simmonds · Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  • 15:05EDMMatt Benning · Interferencedrawn by Wayne Simmonds2 min

3rd

  • 16:28EDMJesse Puljujarvi · Hookingdrawn by Sean Couturier2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
EDM goalPHI goalFinal: EDM 100%

Biggest swing: Connor McDavid, 2nd 12:37 — EDM 72% → 88%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
C. McDavid · Goal · xG 0.91T. Rieder · On goal · xG 0.23A. Chiasson · Goal · xG 0.20D. Caggiula · On goal · xG 0.17J. Puljujarvi · On goal · xG 0.11A. Chiasson · Missed · xG 0.10L. Draisaitl · Missed · xG 0.10A. Chiasson · On goal · xG 0.09R. Nugent-Hopkins · On goal · xG 0.08A. Chiasson · On goal · xG 0.07D. Nurse · On goal · xG 0.06T. Rieder · On goal · xG 0.06C. McDavid · Goal · xG 0.05J. Khaira · On goal · xG 0.05A. Larsson · Goal · xG 0.05T. Rieder · On goal · xG 0.04M. Lucic · Missed · xG 0.03K. Brodziak · On goal · xG 0.02J. Garrison · On goal · xG 0.02J. Garrison · On goal · xG 0.02T. Rieder · On goal · xG 0.02T. Rieder · Missed · xG 0.02R. Nugent-Hopkins · On goal · xG 0.02D. Nurse · On goal · xG 0.01J. Khaira · Missed · xG 0.01J. Puljujarvi · On goal · xG 0.01L. Draisaitl · On goal · xG 0.01K. Brodziak · Missed · xG 0.01M. Benning · Missed · xG 0.01
EDM4 G · 2.6 xG · 29 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

PHIvsEDM
2.51 G
All situations
3 G2.6
2.11 G
Even strength
3 G1.1
0.30 G
Power play
0 G0.2
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 72 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
PHI66%34%EDM

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.48 – 1.66

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

PHIvsEDM
32
Shots on goal
22
58%
Faceoffs
42%
0/5
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
10
16
Hits
33
10
Blocked shots
16
11
Giveaways
11
8
Takeaways
15

Box score

every player line
Philadelphia Flyers skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
9I. ProvorovD000-120.05120—24:54
14S. CouturierC101-130.240105623:43
53S. GostisbehereD000-210.16110—21:16
93J. VoracekR011010.11000—20:35
28C. GirouxR011-140.310126219:56
17W. SimmondsR000-110.07502—18:46
11T. KonecnyR000-240.46000—17:30
8R. HaggD000000.00300—17:20
3R. GudasD000010.03000—16:46
25J. van RiemsdykL000-310.05000—16:06
47A. MacDonaldD000-200.00000—15:25
19N. PatrickC000010.021003814:40
6T. SanheimD000010.01030—14:05
21S. LaughtonC000-150.491007113:06
12M. RafflL000030.0930010012:19
22D. WeiseR000030.36000—11:43
23O. LindblomL000-110.06010—11:30
44P. VaroneC000-100.001106707:21
Philadelphia Flyers goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
41A. Stolarz(L)21183.8571.67-1.3358:59

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).