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Oilers at Avalanche
NHL

Edmonton Oilers at Colorado Avalanche

NHL scoreboard
Edmonton Oilers
▸6
Colorado Avalanche
4
FinalTV ALT, SNW·Pepsi Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Edmonton Oilers beat the Colorado Avalanche 6-4. The Oilers scored first and never trailed. The Oilers led 5-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Ryan Nugent-Hopkins's goal at 9:26 of the second period, which took the Oilers' chances from 67% to 83%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 3.2 to 2.2; shots on goal were EDM 26, COL 43. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 68% of the time. Mikko Koskinen stopped 39 of 43 (.907), 0.8 goals below expected; Semyon Varlamov stopped 15 of 18 (.833), 1.3 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Leon Draisaitl (1 G, 2 A), 2. Mikko Rantanen (1 G, 3 A), 3. Connor McDavid (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    EDM
    L. Draisaitl1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    COL
    M. Rantanen1 G, 3 A
  3. ★★★
    EDM
    C. McDavid1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
EDMEDM1941314626
COLCOL013114316443

Scoring

10 goals

1st period

  1. EDM
    K. Brodziak(3)
    D. Nurse (7)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +13 pts
    1-0
    13:51

2nd period

  1. EDM
    R. Nugent-Hopkins(9)PPG
    C. McDavid (26), M. Benning (6)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +16 pts
    2-0
    9:26
  2. EDM
    R. Nugent-Hopkins(10)
    M. Lucic (6)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +10 pts
    3-0
    13:37
  3. EDM
    C. McDavid(17)
    L. Draisaitl (20), A. Larsson (9)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +4 pts
    4-0
    15:14
  4. COL
    M. Rantanen(13)
    T. Barrie (18), G. Landeskog (18)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +3 pts
    4-1
    16:01
  5. EDM
    L. Draisaitl(16)
    Z. Kassian (1), K. Brodziak (2)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +4 pts
    5-1
    16:42

3rd period

  1. COL
    C. Wilson(8)PPG
    M. Rantanen (37), G. Landeskog (19)
    slapxG 0.13win prob +2 pts
    5-2
    1:41
  2. EDM
    D. Nurse(4)PPG
    R. Nugent-Hopkins (19), L. Draisaitl (21)
    slapxG 0.03win prob +2 pts
    6-2
    3:05
  3. COL
    G. Landeskog(18)
    M. Rantanen (38), N. MacKinnon (26)
    tip-inxG 0.03
    6-3
    16:11
  4. COL
    G. Landeskog(19)
    M. Rantanen (39), N. MacKinnon (27)
    tip-inxG 0.09
    6-4
    18:53

Penalties

EDM 17 PIM·COL 13 PIM

1st

  • 7:29EDMJujhar Khaira · Hookingdrawn by Gabriel Landeskog2 min
  • 11:43COLIan Cole · Hookingdrawn by Leon Draisaitl2 min

2nd

  • 1:50EDMMatt Benning · Trippingdrawn by Tyson Jost2 min
  • 7:40COLNathan MacKinnon · Slashingdrawn by Connor McDavid2 min
  • 17:35EDMAlex Chiasson · Holdingdrawn by Matt Nieto2 min

3rd

  • 1:04EDMMatt Benning · Slashingdrawn by Samuel Girard2 min
  • 2:12COLSven Andrighetto · Trippingdrawn by Kevin Gravel2 min
  • 5:44EDMLeon Draisaitl · Slashingdrawn by Nathan MacKinnon2 min
  • 5:44COLNathan MacKinnon · Cross checkingdrawn by Leon Draisaitl2 min
  • 9:46EDMMatt Benning · Fightingdrawn by Matt Calvert5 min
  • 9:46COLMatt Calvert · Fightingdrawn by Matt Benning5 min
  • 16:43EDMMatt Benning · Interferencedrawn by Mikko Rantanen2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
COL goalEDM goalFinal: COL 0%

Biggest swing: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, 2nd 9:26 — EDM 67% → 83%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.17M. Calvert · Missed · xG 0.14S. Andrighetto · On goal · xG 0.14T. Barrie · On goal · xG 0.14T. Jost · On goal · xG 0.13C. Soderberg · On goal · xG 0.13C. Wilson · Goal · xG 0.13N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.12N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.12S. Andrighetto · On goal · xG 0.10M. Nieto · On goal · xG 0.10M. Nieto · On goal · xG 0.10G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.10M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.09G. Landeskog · Goal · xG 0.09N. Zadorov · On goal · xG 0.08M. Calvert · Missed · xG 0.08N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.07A. Greer · Missed · xG 0.07C. Wilson · Missed · xG 0.06N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.06N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.06E. Johnson · Missed · xG 0.06G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.05M. Calvert · Missed · xG 0.05G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.05S. Andrighetto · On goal · xG 0.04C. Soderberg · On goal · xG 0.04M. Nieto · Missed · xG 0.04S. Girard · On goal · xG 0.04T. Jost · On goal · xG 0.04C. Soderberg · Missed · xG 0.04M. Nieto · On goal · xG 0.03T. Jost · On goal · xG 0.03C. Soderberg · Missed · xG 0.03M. Calvert · On goal · xG 0.03T. Barrie · On goal · xG 0.03N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.03C. Soderberg · On goal · xG 0.03G. Landeskog · Goal · xG 0.03I. Cole · On goal · xG 0.02T. Barrie · On goal · xG 0.02S. Girard · On goal · xG 0.02C. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.02M. Calvert · Missed · xG 0.02T. Barrie · On goal · xG 0.02N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.02T. Barrie · On goal · xG 0.01M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.01S. Girard · Missed · xG 0.01M. Rantanen · Goal · xG 0.01N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.01N. Zadorov · On goal · xG 0.01N. Zadorov · On goal · xG 0.01C. Soderberg · On goal · xG 0.01C. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.01N. Zadorov · On goal · xG 0.01S. Andrighetto · On goal · xG 0.01
COL4 G · 3.2 xG · 58 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

EDMvsCOL
2.26 G
All situations
4 G3.2
1.54 G
Even strength
3 G1.8
0.62 G
Power play
1 G1.4
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 95 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
EDM32%68%COL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.13 – 3.19

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

EDMvsCOL
26
Shots on goal
43
38%
Faceoffs
62%
2/3
Power play
1/5
17
Penalty minutes
13
23
Hits
14
16
Blocked shots
9
1
Giveaways
4
10
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Edmonton Oilers skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
25D. NurseD112+260.21130—30:44
6A. LarssonD011020.01610—28:40
29L. DraisaitlC123020.250023824:33
97C. McDavidC112050.691003822:17
28K. BrodziakC112+210.221503320:35
39A. ChiassonR000010.09012—19:11
93R. Nugent-HopkinsC213-150.501003618:11
5K. GravelD000-100.00120—18:00
44Z. KassianR011+300.00100—16:37
16J. KhairaL000000.00302—16:19
4K. RussellD000000.00010—16:14
83M. BenningD011010.043011—12:06
77O. KlefbomD000000.03020—10:36
27M. LucicL011+110.01400—10:19
98J. PuljujarviR000-100.00110—09:22
23R. SpoonerC000010.010005005:37
8T. RattieR000010.1500010005:20
73V. ZykovL000000.00000—04:42
Edmonton Oilers goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
19M. Koskinen(W)43394.9073.21-0.7960:00

Season series

COL leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).