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Senators at Sabres
NHL

Ottawa Senators at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Ottawa Senators
▸4
Buffalo Sabres
2
FinalTV MSG-B, SN1·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the Buffalo Sabres 4-2. The Sabres scored first; the Senators answered. The Senators led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Kyle Okposo's goal at 16:41 of the second period, which took the Sabres' chances from 14% to 31%. Expected goals were close — OTT 2.3, BUF 2.1; shots on goal were OTT 32, BUF 34. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 54% of the time. Craig Anderson stopped 32 of 34 (.941); Chad Johnson stopped 28 of 31 (.903), 1.1 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Ryan Dzingel (1 G, 1 A), 2. Matt Duchene (1 G), 3. Kyle Okposo (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    R. Dzingel1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    OTT
    M. Duchene1 G
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    K. Okposo1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
OTTOTT21011418432
BUFBUF11417013234

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    R. O'Reilly(23)
    S. Wilson (8), S. Reinhart (25)
    backhandxG 0.18win prob +11 pts
    0-1
    0:30
  2. OTT
    M. McCormick(3)
    M. Borowiecki (8), A. Burrows (8)
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +11 pts
    1-1
    2:56
  3. OTT
    M. Duchene(27)
    Unassisted
    slapxG 0.07win prob +12 pts
    2-1
    6:10

2nd period

  1. OTT
    R. Dzingel(21)
    F. Chlapik (3), C. Wolanin (1)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +16 pts
    3-1
    3:21
  2. BUF
    K. Okposo(14)
    C. Mittelstadt (3), E. Rodrigues (15)
    snapxG 0.11win prob +17 pts
    3-2
    16:41

3rd period

  1. OTT
    A. Burrows(6)EN
    R. Dzingel (18)
    backhandxG 0.36win prob +3 pts
    4-2
    19:21

Penalties

OTT 6 PIM·BUF 2 PIM

1st

  • 17:08OTTMatt Duchene · Holdingdrawn by Rasmus Ristolainen2 min

2nd

  • 1:17BUFMarco Scandella · Trippingdrawn by Mike Hoffman2 min
  • 6:42OTTBen Harpur · Cross checkingdrawn by Johan Larsson2 min

3rd

  • 11:22OTTCody Ceci · Holdingdrawn by Kyle Okposo2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalOTT goalFinal: BUF 0%

Biggest swing: Kyle Okposo, 2nd 16:41 — BUF 14% → 31%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
S. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.21R. O'Reilly · Goal · xG 0.18C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.15S. Wilson · Missed · xG 0.15S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.15K. Okposo · Goal · xG 0.11S. Reinhart · Missed · xG 0.09B. Guhle · On goal · xG 0.08A. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.08K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.07J. Nolan · Missed · xG 0.07J. Pominville · Missed · xG 0.07S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.06R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.06C. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.05K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.05K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.05J. Pominville · On goal · xG 0.05R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.05K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.04S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.04R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.03S. Wilson · Missed · xG 0.03C. Nelson · Missed · xG 0.02E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.02J. Pominville · On goal · xG 0.02R. Ristolainen · On goal · xG 0.02E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.02J. Falk · Missed · xG 0.02M. Scandella · Missed · xG 0.01N. Beaulieu · On goal · xG 0.01J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.01M. Scandella · On goal · xG 0.01J. Pominville · On goal · xG 0.01E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.01E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.01B. Guhle · On goal · xG 0.01N. Baptiste · On goal · xG 0.01S. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.01M. Scandella · On goal · xG 0.01S. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.01R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.01J. Falk · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF2 G · 2.1 xG · 43 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

OTTvsBUF
2.33 G
All situations
2 G2.1
1.73 G
Even strength
2 G2.0
0.10 G
Power play
0 G0.2
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 79 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
OTT46%54%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.86 – 2.06

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

OTTvsBUF
32
Shots on goal
34
47%
Faceoffs
53%
0/1
Power play
0/3
6
Penalty minutes
2
14
Hits
18
8
Blocked shots
5
11
Giveaways
11
7
Takeaways
0

Box score

every player line
Ottawa Senators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
5C. CeciD000040.05312—27:00
74M. BorowieckiD011010.05520—20:30
72T. ChabotD000+110.14000—19:20
33F. ClaessonD000+120.04110—18:59
15Z. SmithC000-130.341004218:26
86C. WolaninD011+110.05000—17:19
95M. DucheneC101020.290126317:00
68M. HoffmanC000-100.0000010016:58
10T. PyattL000010.0100010016:33
56M. PaajarviL000020.02010—16:21
67B. HarpurD000+100.00102—16:13
36C. WhiteC000-100.00000016:10
44J. PageauC000+140.240204315:59
14A. BurrowsR112+340.48100—14:19
18R. DzingelC112+240.30000014:01
78F. ChlapikC011+210.150003813:26
89M. McCormickL101+120.10200—12:35
9B. RyanR000000.00000—02:51
Ottawa Senators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
41C. Anderson(W)34322.9412.15+0.1560:00

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).