Skip to content
Sabres at Senators
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Ottawa Senators

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
2
Ottawa Senators
▸3
Final/OTTV MSG-B, TSN5·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the Buffalo Sabres 3-2 in overtime, Mike Hoffman scoring at 1:13. The Sabres scored first; the Senators answered. The Sabres led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mike Hoffman's goal at 1:13 of overtime, which took the Senators' chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Senators, 3.1 to 1.2; shots on goal were BUF 25, OTT 36. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Senators win a replay of these chances 83% of the time. Robin Lehner stopped 33 of 36 (.917); Craig Anderson stopped 23 of 25 (.920), 0.8 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Mike Hoffman (1 G), 2. Marian Gaborik (1 G, 1 A), 3. Matt Duchene (3 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    M. Hoffman1 G
  2. ★★
    OTT
    M. Gaborik1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    M. Duchene3 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
BUFBUF180411300225
OTTOTT0130921311336

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    S. Wilson(5)
    J. Larsson (7), N. Beaulieu (5)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +13 pts
    1-0
    6:31

3rd period

  1. OTT
    M. Gaborik(8)
    E. Karlsson (33), M. Duchene (19)
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +28 pts
    1-1
    5:15
  2. BUF
    E. Rodrigues(4)
    K. Okposo (26), C. Nelson (4)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +40 pts
    2-1
    15:31
  3. OTT
    D. Brassard(16)
    M. Gaborik (8), M. Duchene (20)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +46 pts
    2-2
    19:29

Overtime

  1. OTT
    M. Hoffman(16)
    E. Karlsson (34), M. Duchene (21)
    slapxG 0.09win prob +49 pts
    2-3
    1:13

Penalties

BUF 10 PIM·OTT 6 PIM

1st

  • 7:46BUFSam Reinhart · Hookingdrawn by Tom Pyatt2 min
  • 13:42OTTMark Borowiecki · Roughingdrawn by Zemgus Girgensons2 min
  • 13:42BUFZemgus Girgensons · Roughingdrawn by Mark Borowiecki2 min
  • 14:31BUFSam Reinhart · Hookingdrawn by Matt Duchene2 min

2nd

  • 6:40OTTCody Ceci · Holdingdrawn by Jacob Josefson2 min
  • 14:50BUFEvan Rodrigues · Slashingdrawn by Derick Brassard2 min
  • 18:31BUFBenoit Pouliot · Holding the stickdrawn by Tom Pyatt2 min

3rd

  • 11:18OTTColin White · Slashingdrawn by Nathan Beaulieu2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalBUF goalFinal: OTT 100%

Biggest swing: Mike Hoffman, OT 1:13 — OTT 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
D. Brassard · On goal · xG 0.24M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.20M. Borowiecki · On goal · xG 0.20Z. Smith · On goal · xG 0.14R. Dzingel · On goal · xG 0.14M. Gaborik · On goal · xG 0.14M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.14D. Brassard · Missed · xG 0.12M. Borowiecki · On goal · xG 0.12M. Paajarvi · On goal · xG 0.11E. Karlsson · Missed · xG 0.10D. Brassard · Goal · xG 0.10M. Hoffman · On goal · xG 0.09M. Gaborik · Goal · xG 0.09M. Hoffman · Goal · xG 0.09M. Duchene · Missed · xG 0.08C. Ceci · Missed · xG 0.08M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.08D. Brassard · On goal · xG 0.07D. Brassard · Missed · xG 0.06Z. Smith · On goal · xG 0.06M. Stone · Missed · xG 0.05M. Hoffman · On goal · xG 0.05M. Borowiecki · On goal · xG 0.05D. Brassard · Missed · xG 0.05E. Karlsson · On goal · xG 0.04M. Hoffman · Missed · xG 0.04E. Karlsson · Missed · xG 0.04M. Hoffman · Missed · xG 0.04E. Karlsson · Missed · xG 0.03M. Stone · On goal · xG 0.03D. Brassard · Missed · xG 0.03E. Karlsson · On goal · xG 0.03M. Duchene · Missed · xG 0.02E. Karlsson · Missed · xG 0.02M. Paajarvi · On goal · xG 0.02C. Ceci · On goal · xG 0.02T. Chabot · Missed · xG 0.02M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.01Z. Smith · On goal · xG 0.01E. Karlsson · On goal · xG 0.01C. Ceci · Missed · xG 0.01C. Ceci · On goal · xG 0.01B. Harpur · Missed · xG 0.01C. Ceci · On goal · xG 0.01C. White · On goal · xG 0.01M. Paajarvi · On goal · xG 0.01M. Paajarvi · On goal · xG 0.01E. Karlsson · On goal · xG 0.00E. Karlsson · On goal · xG 0.00E. Karlsson · On goal · xG 0.00T. Pyatt · On goal · xG 0.00C. White · On goal · xG 0.00
OTT3 G · 3.1 xG · 53 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsOTT
1.22 G
All situations
3 G3.1
0.72 G
Even strength
3 G2.3
0.50 G
Power play
0 G0.8
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 87 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF17%83%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.21 – 3.10

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsOTT
25
Shots on goal
36
45%
Faceoffs
55%
0/2
Power play
0/4
10
Penalty minutes
6
32
Hits
26
22
Blocked shots
10
11
Giveaways
10
5
Takeaways
10

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
55R. RistolainenD000-130.03450—28:18
6M. ScandellaD000-110.05320—26:01
90R. O'ReillyC000-230.220104422:07
8C. NelsonD011+110.02110—19:02
23S. ReinhartC000-220.16204018:34
22J. LarssonL011020.023206717:12
67B. PouliotL000000.00212—16:44
82N. BeaulieuD011+110.01210—16:25
71E. RodriguesC101010.141122215:56
4J. GorgesD000000.00520—15:21
9E. KaneL000040.152105014:58
28Z. GirgensonsC000000.16312013:53
20S. WilsonC101+120.06230013:42
21K. OkposoR011030.14000—13:22
93V. AntipinD000-110.02000—11:43
29J. PominvilleR000+110.00110—11:13
10J. JosefsonC000000.001006710:15
13N. BaptisteR000000.03000—08:53
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40R. Lehner(O)36333.9173.11+0.1161:13

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).