Skip to content
Red Wings at Sabres
NHL

Detroit Red Wings at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Detroit Red Wings
▸6
Buffalo Sabres
3
FinalTV FS-D+, MSG-B·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Detroit Red Wings beat the Buffalo Sabres 6-3. The Red Wings came back from two goals down. The Red Wings led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Anthony Mantha's goal at 16:26 of the second period, which took the Red Wings' chances from 48% to 69%. Expected goals favored the Red Wings, 3.0 to 2.2; shots on goal were DET 32, BUF 32. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Red Wings win a replay of these chances 64% of the time. Jimmy Howard stopped 29 of 32 (.906), 0.8 goals below expected; Robin Lehner stopped 17 of 20 (.850), 1.2 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Dylan Larkin (1 G, 1 A), 2. Evgeny Svechnikov (1 G, 1 A), 3. Anthony Mantha (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DET
    D. Larkin1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    DET
    E. Svechnikov1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    DET
    A. Mantha1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
DETDET11228312632
BUFBUF21101318332

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    J. Eichel(25)
    J. Pominville (18), B. Guhle (2)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    3:16
  2. BUF
    R. O'Reilly(21)PPG
    S. Reinhart (24), R. Ristolainen (30)
    wristxG 0.26win prob +12 pts
    0-2
    7:11
  3. DET
    D. Larkin(13)
    E. Svechnikov (1)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +14 pts
    1-2
    7:41

2nd period

  1. DET
    D. Helm(11)SHG
    F. Nielsen (16)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +17 pts
    2-2
    5:21
  2. DET
    A. Mantha(24)
    J. Hicketts (3), F. Nielsen (17)
    wristxG 0.33win prob +21 pts
    3-2
    16:26

3rd period

  1. DET
    A. Athanasiou(15)
    J. Abdelkader (21), N. Kronwall (19)
    wristxG 0.24win prob +18 pts
    4-2
    1:50
  2. BUF
    E. Rodrigues(7)
    C. Mittelstadt (1)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +16 pts
    4-3
    4:51
  3. DET
    D. DeKeyser(6)
    G. Nyquist (17), H. Zetterberg (40)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +15 pts
    5-3
    10:10
  4. DET
    E. Svechnikov(2)
    A. Mantha (21), D. Larkin (45)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +2 pts
    6-3
    16:59

Penalties

DET 8 PIM·BUF 10 PIM

1st

  • 5:54DETMartin Frk · Hookingdrawn by Jack Eichel2 min
  • 17:15BUFJordan Nolan · High stickingdrawn by Gustav Nyquist2 min
  • 19:23BUFRasmus Ristolainen · Interferencedrawn by Tyler Bertuzzi2 min

2nd

  • 4:45DETJustin Abdelkader · Slashingdrawn by Ryan O'Reilly2 min
  • 12:49DETJonathan Ericsson · Interferencedrawn by Kyle Okposo2 min
  • 14:26BUFserved by J. Nolan · Delaying game bench face off violation2 min

3rd

  • 6:06DETTrevor Daley · Holdingdrawn by Jack Eichel2 min
  • 11:53BUFKyle Okposo · High stickingdrawn by Justin Abdelkader2 min
  • 14:00BUFJustin Falk · Interferencedrawn by Tyler Bertuzzi2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalDET goalFinal: BUF 0%

Biggest swing: Anthony Mantha, 2nd 16:26 — DET 48% → 69%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. O'Reilly · Goal · xG 0.26J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.19K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.16Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.14S. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.13S. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.12J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.10J. Larsson · Missed · xG 0.09C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.08E. Rodrigues · Goal · xG 0.08K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.07J. Larsson · Missed · xG 0.06K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.06S. Wilson · Missed · xG 0.06K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.05E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.05J. Pominville · On goal · xG 0.04J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.04R. Ristolainen · On goal · xG 0.03J. Eichel · Goal · xG 0.03J. Nolan · On goal · xG 0.03R. Ristolainen · On goal · xG 0.03R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.03S. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.02E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.02J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.02C. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.02J. Pominville · On goal · xG 0.02Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.02C. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.01R. Ristolainen · On goal · xG 0.01B. Guhle · On goal · xG 0.01S. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.01C. Mittelstadt · Missed · xG 0.01J. Pominville · On goal · xG 0.01R. Ristolainen · Missed · xG 0.01Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.01B. Guhle · Missed · xG 0.01
BUF3 G · 2.2 xG · 38 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DETvsBUF
3.06 G
All situations
3 G2.2
1.75 G
Even strength
2 G1.0
0.80 G
Power play
1 G0.8
0.41 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 84 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DET64%36%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.91 – 2.16

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DETvsBUF
32
Shots on goal
32
46%
Faceoffs
54%
0/5
Power play
1/4
8
Penalty minutes
10
10
Hits
16
13
Blocked shots
13
7
Giveaways
10
4
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Detroit Red Wings skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
65D. DeKeyserD101+220.14040—22:00
71D. LarkinC112+240.260004220:09
2J. HickettsD011+300.05210—19:20
3N. JensenD000020.06000—19:05
39A. ManthaR112+230.46000—17:27
83T. DaleyD000+100.01032—17:25
51F. NielsenC022+210.240105017:10
52J. EricssonD000000.01112—16:50
55N. KronwallD011+100.02200—16:30
40H. ZetterbergC011+160.150105016:15
59T. BertuzziL000+130.03000—15:13
14G. NyquistR011+110.35100—15:04
43D. HelmC101020.17010015:00
8J. AbdelkaderL011010.01102—14:13
42M. FrkR000+130.17012—13:42
41L. GlendeningC000-100.292005013:21
72A. AthanasiouC101+130.4100010012:32
77E. SvechnikovL112+210.12100—11:42
Detroit Red Wings goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35J. Howard(W)32293.9062.17-0.8359:45

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).