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Sabres at Red Wings
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Detroit Red Wings

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
▸3
Detroit Red Wings
2
Final/OTTV FS-D, MSG-B·Little Caesars Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Detroit Red Wings 3-2 in overtime, Marco Scandella scoring at 4:59. The Sabres scored first and never trailed. The Sabres led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Marco Scandella's goal at 4:59 of overtime, which took the Sabres' chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Red Wings, 2.8 to 2.5; shots on goal were BUF 30, DET 37. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Red Wings win a replay of these chances 56% of the time. Robin Lehner stopped 35 of 37 (.946), 0.8 goals saved above expected; Jimmy Howard stopped 27 of 30 (.900), 0.5 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Marco Scandella (1 G), 2. Justin Abdelkader (1 G), 3. Rasmus Ristolainen (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    M. Scandella1 G
  2. ★★
    DET
    J. Abdelkader1 G
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    R. Ristolainen1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
BUFBUF1141100214330
DETDET0101161803237

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    R. Ristolainen(6)
    N. Beaulieu (6), J. Larsson (8)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    3:39

2nd period

  1. DET
    J. Ericsson(3)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.02win prob +17 pts
    1-1
    3:42
  2. BUF
    E. Kane(20)PPG
    J. Pominville (12), R. Ristolainen (23)
    wrap-aroundxG 0.06win prob +19 pts
    2-1
    13:09

3rd period

  1. DET
    J. Abdelkader(10)PPG
    F. Nielsen (13), H. Zetterberg (33)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +39 pts
    2-2
    18:35

Overtime

  1. BUF
    M. Scandella(3)
    J. Larsson (9), S. Reinhart (18)
    snapxG 0.22win prob +51 pts
    3-2
    4:59

Penalties

BUF 6 PIM·DET 6 PIM

1st

  • 8:05DETLuke Glendening · Trippingdrawn by Jason Pominville2 min

2nd

  • 0:40BUFCasey Nelson · Hookingdrawn by Darren Helm2 min
  • 11:32DETNiklas Kronwall · Hookingdrawn by Scott Wilson2 min
  • 17:06BUFNick Baptiste · Hookingdrawn by Anthony Mantha2 min

3rd

  • 2:29DETDylan Larkin · Trippingdrawn by Kyle Okposo2 min
  • 17:04BUFJohan Larsson · Trippingdrawn by Tomas Tatar2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DET goalBUF goalFinal: DET 0%

Biggest swing: Marco Scandella, OT 4:59 — BUF 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Mantha · On goal · xG 0.25N. Kronwall · On goal · xG 0.22T. Bertuzzi · On goal · xG 0.18D. Helm · On goal · xG 0.17J. Ericsson · On goal · xG 0.15G. Nyquist · On goal · xG 0.13J. Abdelkader · On goal · xG 0.11A. Athanasiou · Missed · xG 0.11H. Zetterberg · Missed · xG 0.10T. Tatar · Missed · xG 0.10G. Nyquist · On goal · xG 0.10G. Nyquist · On goal · xG 0.10H. Zetterberg · On goal · xG 0.09J. Abdelkader · Goal · xG 0.09J. Abdelkader · Missed · xG 0.08A. Athanasiou · On goal · xG 0.08F. Nielsen · On goal · xG 0.07D. Larkin · Missed · xG 0.06F. Nielsen · On goal · xG 0.06T. Tatar · Missed · xG 0.05A. Athanasiou · On goal · xG 0.05T. Tatar · On goal · xG 0.04D. Helm · Missed · xG 0.04T. Daley · Missed · xG 0.04D. DeKeyser · Missed · xG 0.04J. Ericsson · On goal · xG 0.03N. Jensen · On goal · xG 0.02N. Jensen · On goal · xG 0.02J. Ericsson · On goal · xG 0.02N. Jensen · On goal · xG 0.02J. Ericsson · Goal · xG 0.02X. Ouellet · On goal · xG 0.02H. Zetterberg · On goal · xG 0.02T. Tatar · On goal · xG 0.01D. DeKeyser · On goal · xG 0.01T. Daley · On goal · xG 0.01D. DeKeyser · On goal · xG 0.01F. Nielsen · On goal · xG 0.01G. Nyquist · On goal · xG 0.01N. Jensen · On goal · xG 0.01A. Athanasiou · On goal · xG 0.01X. Ouellet · On goal · xG 0.01H. Zetterberg · Missed · xG 0.01D. Helm · On goal · xG 0.01D. Helm · On goal · xG 0.01N. Kronwall · On goal · xG 0.01J. Ericsson · On goal · xG 0.01
DET2 G · 2.8 xG · 47 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsDET
2.53 G
All situations
2 G2.8
1.92 G
Even strength
1 G1.8
0.61 G
Power play
1 G1.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 86 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF44%56%DET

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.46 – 2.79

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsDET
30
Shots on goal
37
44%
Faceoffs
56%
1/3
Power play
1/3
6
Penalty minutes
6
23
Hits
13
23
Blocked shots
8
11
Giveaways
13
3
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
6M. ScandellaD101+110.24040—28:28
55R. RistolainenD112+130.12340—28:00
90R. O'ReillyC000040.560105922:21
23S. ReinhartC011+140.51010020:56
9E. KaneL101030.382005020:06
8C. NelsonD000020.15332—19:44
22J. LarssonL022+220.022223618:22
82N. BeaulieuD011+130.04210—17:22
93V. AntipinD000-100.00110—15:42
20S. WilsonC000010.14300015:39
71E. RodriguesC000-110.051001715:27
29J. PominvilleR011020.080005015:25
67B. PouliotL000010.16200—13:50
21K. OkposoR000000.00100—13:36
4J. GorgesD000-110.01020—13:01
28Z. GirgensonsC000020.04220012:32
10J. JosefsonC000000.000201411:09
13N. BaptisteR000000.00102—08:15
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40R. Lehner(W)37352.9462.82+0.8264:34

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).