Canadiens at Sabres 3-0 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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Montréal Canadiens

▸3

Buffalo Sabres

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Recap

written from the game data

The Montréal Canadiens beat the Buffalo Sabres 3-0. The Canadiens scored first and never trailed. The Canadiens led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Artturi Lehkonen's goal at 4:56 of the second period, which took the Canadiens' chances from 47% to 64%. Expected goals favored the Canadiens, 3.5 to 2.7; shots on goal were MTL 24, BUF 35. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 76% of the time. Antti Niemi stopped 35 of 35 (1.000), 2.7 goals saved above expected; Linus Ullmark stopped 21 of 22 (.955). Three stars: 1. Antti Niemi (35 saves, 1.000), 2. Artturi Lehkonen (1 G), 3. Linus Ullmark (21 saves, .955).

Three stars

★
A. Niemi35 saves, 1.000
★★
A. Lehkonen1 G
★★★
L. Ullmark21 saves, .955

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MTL	06	111	27	324
BUF	011	010	014	035

Scoring

3 goals

2nd period

A. Lehkonen(10)
J. de la Rose (7), A. Galchenyuk (29)
slapxG 0.12win prob +17 pts
1-0
4:56

3rd period

P. Byron(18)EN
J. Drouin (27), C. Hudon (20)
wristxG 0.90win prob +5 pts
2-0
18:45
B. Gallagher(27)EN
L. Shaw (7)
wristxG 0.59
3-0
19:16

Penalties

4 PIM·

4 PIM

1st

15:55Kyle Okposo · Slashingdrawn by Logan Shaw2 min

2nd

12:00Johan Larsson · Slashingdrawn by Daniel Carr2 min

3rd

5:58Nikita Scherbak · Trippingdrawn by Johan Larsson2 min
6:53Artturi Lehkonen · Trippingdrawn by Rasmus Ristolainen2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: BUF

Biggest swing: Artturi Lehkonen, 2nd 4:56 — MTL 47% → 64%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

0 G · 2.7 xG · 48 att

←

attacks

attacks →

3 G · 3.5 xG · 34 att BUF

0 G · 2.7 xG · 48 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

3.51 G
All situations: 0 G2.7; 1.21 G
Even strength: 0 G2.2; 0.10 G
Power play: 0 G0.5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 82 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

24%76%

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.31 – 2.66

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

24
Shots on goal: 35; 50%
Faceoffs: 50%; 0/2
Power play: 0/2; 4
Penalty minutes: 4; 19
Hits: 28; 8
Blocked shots: 6; 6
Giveaways: 11; 4
Takeaways: 4

Box score

every player line

Montréal Canadiens skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
26J. PetryD	0	0	0	+1	1	0.03	1	1	0	—	24:56
22K. AlznerD	0	0	0	+2	0	0.00	1	0	0	—	21:09
28M. ReillyD	0	0	0	0	2	0.06	0	0	0	—	19:23
58N. JuulsenD	0	0	0	+2	1	0.01	2	2	0	—	18:53
92J. DrouinL	0	1	1	+1	1	0.02	0	0	0	45	18:21
27A. GalchenyukC	0	1	1	+1	1	0.04	0	1	0	0	17:37
8J. BennD	0	0	0	+1	1	0.02	0	1	0	—	17:15
11B. GallagherR	1	0	1	+1	3	0.78	1	1	0	75	17:05
41P. ByronL	1	0	1	+1	4	1.89	2	0	0	—	17:02
38N. ScherbakR	0	0	0	+1	2	0.03	0	0	2	—	16:43
62A. LehkonenL	1	0	1	+1	2	0.21	3	1	2	—	16:35
25J. de la RoseL	0	1	1	+1	3	0.14	0	0	0	60	15:46
54C. HudonL	0	1	1	+1	2	0.09	2	0	0	100	15:27
36B. LernoutD	0	0	0	0	0	0.02	3	1	0	—	14:26
49L. ShawR	0	1	1	+1	0	0.05	1	0	0	50	13:56
43D. CarrL	0	0	0	0	1	0.03	0	0	0	—	11:09
42B. FroeseC	0	0	0	0	0	0.05	1	0	0	20	10:29
20N. DeslauriersL	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	0	0	—	09:48

Montréal Canadiens goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
37A. Niemi(W)	35	35	0	1.000	2.71	+2.71	60:00

Season series

MTL leads 4-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Montréal Canadiens at Buffalo Sabres

2nd period

3rd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score