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Flames at Sabres
NHL

Calgary Flames at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Calgary Flames
▸5
Buffalo Sabres
1
FinalTV MSG-B, SN·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Calgary Flames beat the Buffalo Sabres 5-1. The Flames scored first and never trailed. The Flames led 5-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mark Jankowski's goal at 8:35 of the first period, which took the Flames' chances from 59% to 74%. Expected goals favored the Flames, 2.3 to 1.4; shots on goal were CGY 41, BUF 26. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Flames win a replay of these chances 68% of the time. David Rittich stopped 25 of 26 (.962); Robin Lehner stopped 18 of 19 (.947). Three stars: 1. Sam Bennett (1 G, 1 A), 2. Mark Giordano (1 G, 1 A), 3. Mark Jankowski (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    CGY
    S. Bennett1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    CGY
    M. Giordano1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    CGY
    M. Jankowski1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
CGYCGY217314010541
BUFBUF0601119126

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. CGY
    S. Bennett(10)
    M. Jankowski (8), T. Hamonic (10)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    5:35
  2. CGY
    M. Jankowski(12)
    S. Bennett (15), T. Brodie (27)
    snapxG 0.06win prob +16 pts
    2-0
    8:35

2nd period

  1. CGY
    M. Giordano(12)
    M. Ferland (15), S. Monahan (30)
    slapxG 0.03win prob +12 pts
    3-0
    5:00
  2. CGY
    S. Monahan(30)
    J. Gaudreau (55), T. Brodie (28)
    snapxG 0.08win prob +5 pts
    4-0
    6:01
  3. CGY
    D. Hamilton(15)PPG
    M. Giordano (23), J. Gaudreau (56)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +1 pts
    5-0
    18:39

3rd period

  1. BUF
    C. Nelson(2)
    J. Pominville (16), S. Wilson (6)
    wristxG 0.01
    5-1
    19:42

Penalties

CGY 8 PIM·BUF 6 PIM

2nd

  • 2:21CGYDougie Hamilton · High stickingdrawn by Jordan Nolan2 min
  • 6:38CGYMikael Backlund · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 15:20CGYCurtis Lazar · Roughingdrawn by Nick Baptiste2 min
  • 15:20CGYCurtis Lazar · Roughingdrawn by Nick Baptiste2 min
  • 15:20BUFNick Baptiste · Roughingdrawn by Curtis Lazar2 min
  • 17:50BUFRobin Lehner · Roughingdrawn by Matthew Tkachuk2 min

3rd

  • 9:04BUFJacob Josefson · Slashingdrawn by Johnny Gaudreau2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalCGY goalFinal: BUF 0%

Biggest swing: Mark Jankowski, 1st 8:35 — CGY 59% → 74%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Pominville · On goal · xG 0.16K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.11S. Reinhart · Missed · xG 0.10R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.10B. Pouliot · Missed · xG 0.10R. O'Reilly · Missed · xG 0.09B. Pouliot · Missed · xG 0.09S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.08J. Pominville · Missed · xG 0.07Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.06J. Pominville · Missed · xG 0.06J. Pominville · On goal · xG 0.04K. Okposo · Missed · xG 0.04J. Larsson · On goal · xG 0.04K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.03M. Scandella · Missed · xG 0.03J. Larsson · On goal · xG 0.03J. Pominville · Missed · xG 0.02N. Baptiste · On goal · xG 0.02C. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.02N. Beaulieu · On goal · xG 0.02R. Ristolainen · On goal · xG 0.02J. Nolan · On goal · xG 0.01K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.01J. Josefson · On goal · xG 0.01J. Pominville · On goal · xG 0.01J. Nolan · On goal · xG 0.01C. Nelson · Goal · xG 0.01S. Griffith · On goal · xG 0.01N. Beaulieu · On goal · xG 0.01S. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.00M. Scandella · On goal · xG 0.00Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.00S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.00J. Nolan · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF1 G · 1.4 xG · 35 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CGYvsBUF
2.35 G
All situations
1 G1.4
2.04 G
Even strength
1 G0.7
0.11 G
Power play
0 G0.7
0.20 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 84 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CGY68%32%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.29 – 1.42

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CGYvsBUF
41
Shots on goal
26
38%
Faceoffs
62%
1/2
Power play
0/3
8
Penalty minutes
6
20
Hits
18
7
Blocked shots
10
11
Giveaways
12
1
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Calgary Flames skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
24T. HamonicD011+210.02300—22:38
7T. BrodieD022+310.06000—21:33
5M. GiordanoD112+130.06200—21:26
26M. StoneD000-120.07320—19:40
11M. BacklundC000040.070022718:01
27D. HamiltonD101+230.14012—17:45
61B. KulakD000-120.06000—17:13
19M. TkachukL000060.24200—16:19
36T. BrouwerR000010.021004016:18
67M. FrolikR000010.16110—16:04
13J. GaudreauL022+210.27000—15:06
18M. StajanC000010.090104314:13
93S. BennettC112+130.2030010013:53
21G. HathawayR000+130.19110—13:40
20C. LazarC000000.00414012:59
23S. MonahanC112+240.170003012:35
77M. JankowskiL112+140.320004612:20
79M. FerlandL011+210.16000—12:19
Calgary Flames goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
33D. Rittich(W)26251.9621.42+0.4259:58

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).