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Sabres at Capitals
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Washington Capitals

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
1
Washington Capitals
▸5
FinalTV NBCSWA, MSG-B·Capital One Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Washington Capitals beat the Buffalo Sabres 5-1. The Capitals scored first and never trailed. The Capitals led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Andre Burakovsky's goal at 13:20 of the second period, which took the Capitals' chances from 73% to 88%. Expected goals favored the Capitals, 4.0 to 2.1; shots on goal were BUF 29, WSH 36. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Capitals win a replay of these chances 71% of the time. Robin Lehner stopped 31 of 35 (.886), 0.5 goals below expected; Philipp Grubauer stopped 28 of 29 (.966), 1.1 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Evgeny Kuznetsov (1 G, 3 A), 2. Philipp Grubauer (28 saves, .966), 3. Alex Ovechkin (2 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    WSH
    E. Kuznetsov1 G, 3 A
  2. ★★
    WSH
    P. Grubauer28 saves, .966
  3. ★★★
    WSH
    A. Ovechkin2 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF0909111129
WSHWSH18112316536

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. WSH
    E. Kuznetsov(17)
    B. Connolly (8), D. Orlov (15)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +11 pts
    0-1
    0:50

2nd period

  1. WSH
    A. Burakovsky(8)
    E. Kuznetsov (40), M. Niskanen (16)
    backhandxG 0.10win prob +15 pts
    0-2
    13:20

3rd period

  1. BUF
    S. Reinhart(14)
    C. Nelson (5)
    backhandxG 0.11win prob +15 pts
    1-2
    0:14
  2. WSH
    A. Ovechkin(37)PPG
    J. Carlson (37), E. Kuznetsov (41)
    snapxG 0.12win prob +11 pts
    1-3
    10:13
  3. WSH
    L. Eller(14)EN
    A. Chiasson (5), M. Niskanen (17)
    slapxG 0.49win prob +1 pts
    1-4
    17:48
  4. WSH
    A. Ovechkin(38)
    J. Carlson (38), E. Kuznetsov (42)
    tip-inxG 0.12
    1-5
    18:36

Penalties

BUF 2 PIM·WSH 4 PIM

1st

  • 3:51WSHBrett Connolly · Hookingdrawn by Evan Rodrigues2 min

3rd

  • 8:43BUFKyle Okposo · Interference goalkeeperdrawn by Philipp Grubauer2 min
  • 14:16WSHAndre Burakovsky · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
WSH goalBUF goalFinal: WSH 100%

Biggest swing: Andre Burakovsky, 2nd 13:20 — WSH 73% → 88%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
L. Eller · Goal · xG 0.49A. Ovechkin · On goal · xG 0.38A. Ovechkin · On goal · xG 0.24A. Ovechkin · On goal · xG 0.19E. Kuznetsov · On goal · xG 0.18E. Kuznetsov · On goal · xG 0.16A. Ovechkin · On goal · xG 0.14A. Ovechkin · On goal · xG 0.13T. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.12A. Ovechkin · Goal · xG 0.12A. Chiasson · On goal · xG 0.12A. Ovechkin · Goal · xG 0.12D. Smith-Pelly · Missed · xG 0.10B. Connolly · On goal · xG 0.10A. Burakovsky · Goal · xG 0.10A. Burakovsky · On goal · xG 0.09A. Ovechkin · On goal · xG 0.09T. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.09A. Chiasson · Missed · xG 0.07A. Ovechkin · On goal · xG 0.07A. Burakovsky · On goal · xG 0.06L. Eller · On goal · xG 0.06A. Ovechkin · On goal · xG 0.06E. Kuznetsov · Goal · xG 0.05D. Smith-Pelly · Missed · xG 0.05M. Niskanen · On goal · xG 0.05C. Stephenson · On goal · xG 0.05B. Connolly · Missed · xG 0.05A. Ovechkin · Missed · xG 0.04D. Orlov · On goal · xG 0.04B. Connolly · Missed · xG 0.04A. Ovechkin · Missed · xG 0.04L. Eller · On goal · xG 0.04A. Burakovsky · On goal · xG 0.04N. Backstrom · On goal · xG 0.03L. Eller · On goal · xG 0.02T. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.02M. Niskanen · Missed · xG 0.02M. Niskanen · Missed · xG 0.02A. Ovechkin · On goal · xG 0.02J. Carlson · Missed · xG 0.02N. Backstrom · On goal · xG 0.02T. Oshie · Missed · xG 0.02D. Smith-Pelly · On goal · xG 0.01T. Oshie · Missed · xG 0.01L. Eller · On goal · xG 0.01C. Djoos · On goal · xG 0.01E. Kuznetsov · On goal · xG 0.01M. Niskanen · Missed · xG 0.00
WSH5 G · 4.0 xG · 49 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsWSH
2.11 G
All situations
4 G4.0
1.81 G
Even strength
3 G3.2
0.30 G
Power play
1 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 95 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF29%71%WSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.08 – 3.32

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsWSH
29
Shots on goal
36
50%
Faceoffs
50%
0/2
Power play
1/1
2
Penalty minutes
4
15
Hits
20
18
Blocked shots
17
2
Giveaways
9
10
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
55R. RistolainenD000-320.08500—24:00
6M. ScandellaD000010.04200—22:07
8C. NelsonD011000.01020—20:18
90R. O'ReillyC000030.311006820:08
82N. BeaulieuD000-200.00140—19:36
21K. OkposoR000040.53112—19:09
71E. RodriguesC000040.330103318:57
23S. ReinhartC101030.3402010017:29
67B. PouliotL000030.12030—17:29
93V. AntipinD000-110.00010—16:34
28Z. GirgensonsC000040.191005014:58
4J. GorgesD000000.01210—14:33
22J. LarssonL000-300.011104013:16
20S. WilsonC000-300.00110013:03
17J. NolanC000000.00000011:59
29J. PominvilleR000-400.00000—11:56
13N. BaptisteR000030.13010—11:42
10J. JosefsonC000010.010003611:24
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40R. Lehner(L)35314.8863.50-0.5059:52

Season series

WSH leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).