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Capitals at Sabres
NHL

Washington Capitals at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Washington Capitals
1
Buffalo Sabres
▸3
FinalTV NBCSN, NBCSWA+·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Washington Capitals 3-1. The Sabres scored first and never trailed. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Benoit Pouliot's goal at 3:22 of the third period, which took the Sabres' chances from 52% to 78%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 2.7 to 1.4; shots on goal were WSH 25, BUF 32. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 65% of the time. Philipp Grubauer stopped 29 of 31 (.935); Robin Lehner stopped 24 of 25 (.960). Three stars: 1. Benoit Pouliot (1 G), 2. Marco Scandella, 3. Evander Kane (2 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    B. Pouliot1 G
  2. ★★
    BUF
    M. Scandella
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    E. Kane2 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
WSHWSH04110011125
BUFBUF0151928332

Scoring

4 goals

2nd period

  1. BUF
    E. Kane(8)
    J. Eichel (10)
    snapxG 0.13win prob +16 pts
    0-1
    2:39
  2. WSH
    A. Ovechkin(13)
    D. Smith-Pelly (4), B. Orpik (3)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +22 pts
    1-1
    17:44

3rd period

  1. BUF
    B. Pouliot(5)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.09win prob +25 pts
    1-2
    3:22
  2. BUF
    E. Kane(9)EN
    J. Pominville (7)
    wristxG 0.61win prob +5 pts
    1-3
    19:40

Penalties

WSH 13 PIM·BUF 7 PIM

1st

  • 4:25WSHAlex Ovechkin · Trippingdrawn by Sam Reinhart2 min
  • 10:59BUFJordan Nolan · Slashingdrawn by Christian Djoos2 min
  • 18:59WSHBrooks Orpik · Roughingdrawn by Jordan Nolan2 min

2nd

  • 12:33BUFJake McCabe · Fightingdrawn by Tom Wilson5 min
  • 12:33WSHTom Wilson · Fightingdrawn by Jake McCabe5 min

3rd

  • 4:12WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov · Slashingdrawn by Jack Eichel2 min
  • 7:01WSHJohn Carlson · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalWSH goalFinal: BUF 100%

Biggest swing: Benoit Pouliot, 3rd 3:22 — BUF 52% → 78%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
E. Kane · Goal · xG 0.61R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.20R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.18S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.18J. Pominville · Missed · xG 0.14E. Kane · Goal · xG 0.13J. Pominville · On goal · xG 0.12R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.09R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.09B. Pouliot · Goal · xG 0.09S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.08J. Eichel · Missed · xG 0.08K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.06B. Pouliot · Missed · xG 0.06M. Scandella · Missed · xG 0.04J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.04M. Scandella · Missed · xG 0.04E. Kane · On goal · xG 0.03R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.03J. Eichel · Missed · xG 0.03J. Falk · On goal · xG 0.03B. Pouliot · Missed · xG 0.03Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.03M. Scandella · On goal · xG 0.03J. Pominville · Missed · xG 0.03S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.02J. Nolan · On goal · xG 0.02E. Kane · On goal · xG 0.02J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.02J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.02Z. Redmond · On goal · xG 0.02M. Scandella · On goal · xG 0.02J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.02J. Pominville · On goal · xG 0.01S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.01S. Reinhart · Missed · xG 0.01T. Fedun · Missed · xG 0.01J. Nolan · On goal · xG 0.01T. Fedun · On goal · xG 0.01J. Pominville · On goal · xG 0.01J. McCabe · On goal · xG 0.01T. Fedun · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF3 G · 2.7 xG · 42 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

WSHvsBUF
1.41 G
All situations
2 G2.7
1.11 G
Even strength
2 G1.6
0.30 G
Power play
0 G0.5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 73 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
WSH35%65%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.37 – 2.09

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

WSHvsBUF
25
Shots on goal
32
48%
Faceoffs
52%
0/1
Power play
0/4
13
Penalty minutes
7
22
Hits
19
8
Blocked shots
12
7
Giveaways
7
5
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Washington Capitals skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
74J. CarlsonD000-350.11002—25:34
9D. OrlovD000050.12320—24:24
44B. OrpikD011-100.00122—21:52
8A. OvechkinL101050.52502—19:34
77T. OshieR000-210.03400—19:22
19N. BackstromC000-220.060105319:08
92E. KuznetsovC000010.101025618:53
29C. DjoosD000000.02000—16:51
25D. Smith-PellyR011+130.230005016:28
4T. ChorneyD000+100.00200—15:42
55A. NessD000000.00010—14:16
39A. ChiassonR000-100.00000—13:35
20L. EllerC000-100.050003813:32
13J. VranaL000-120.12000—12:07
83J. BeagleC000000.001005511:54
43T. WilsonR000-110.01105—11:35
18C. StephensonC000-100.00120009:27
79N. WalkerL000000.00300—08:29
Washington Capitals goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31P. Grubauer(L)31292.9352.13+0.1359:17

Season series

WSH leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).