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Flames at Predators
NHL

Calgary Flames at Nashville Predators

NHL scoreboard
Calgary Flames
▸4
Nashville Predators
3
FinalTV FS-TN, SNW·Bridgestone Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Calgary Flames beat the Nashville Predators 4-3. The Predators scored first; the Flames answered. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mark Jankowski's goal at 3:24 of the third period, which took the Flames' chances from 48% to 74%. Expected goals favored the Flames, 3.4 to 2.3; shots on goal were CGY 31, NSH 32. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Flames win a replay of these chances 61% of the time. David Rittich stopped 29 of 32 (.906), 0.7 goals below expected; Pekka Rinne stopped 27 of 31 (.871), 1.1 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Yannick Weber (1 G), 2. Ryan Johansen (1 G, 1 A), 3. Dougie Hamilton (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NSH
    Y. Weber1 G
  2. ★★
    NSH
    R. Johansen1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    CGY
    D. Hamilton1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
CGYCGY11211029431
NSHNSH1817117332

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. NSH
    R. Johansen(7)
    C. Smith (16), R. Ellis (6)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +13 pts
    0-1
    13:45
  2. CGY
    M. Tkachuk(21)PPG
    S. Monahan (24), M. Giordano (18)
    backhandxG 0.13win prob +11 pts
    1-1
    19:16

2nd period

  1. NSH
    Y. Weber(2)
    V. Arvidsson (19), R. Johansen (29)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +17 pts
    1-2
    9:30
  2. CGY
    D. Hamilton(10)PPG
    S. Monahan (25), J. Gaudreau (49)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +19 pts
    2-2
    14:28

3rd period

  1. CGY
    M. Jankowski(10)
    M. Tkachuk (20), S. Bennett (13)
    tip-inxG 0.11win prob +26 pts
    3-2
    3:24
  2. CGY
    C. Lazar(2)
    D. Hamilton (21)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +15 pts
    4-2
    10:14
  3. NSH
    N. Bonino(8)
    P. Aberg (6), S. Hartnell (9)
    tip-inxG 0.12win prob +13 pts
    4-3
    12:19

Penalties

CGY 12 PIM·NSH 8 PIM

1st

  • 11:34CGYDougie Hamilton · Slashingdrawn by Ryan Johansen2 min
  • 18:58NSHColton Sissons · Trippingdrawn by Michael Frolik2 min

2nd

  • 0:31CGYSean Monahan · High sticking double minordrawn by Ryan Ellis4 min
  • 7:58CGYMikael Backlund · Cross checkingdrawn by P.K. Subban2 min
  • 7:58NSHP.K. Subban · Cross checkingdrawn by Mikael Backlund2 min
  • 12:43NSHYannick Weber · Cross checkingdrawn by Ryan Lomberg2 min
  • 12:43NSHAlexei Emelin · Boardingdrawn by Curtis Lazar2 min
  • 19:28CGYMatt Stajan · Hookingdrawn by Pontus Aberg2 min

3rd

  • 17:47CGYDougie Hamilton · Roughingdrawn by Craig Smith2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NSH goalCGY goalFinal: NSH 0%

Biggest swing: Mark Jankowski, 3rd 3:24 — CGY 48% → 74%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
V. Arvidsson · Missed · xG 0.16Y. Weber · Goal · xG 0.16K. Fiala · On goal · xG 0.14C. Sissons · Missed · xG 0.14K. Fiala · On goal · xG 0.14R. Johansen · On goal · xG 0.13N. Bonino · Goal · xG 0.12C. Smith · Missed · xG 0.10R. Ellis · Missed · xG 0.09C. Sissons · On goal · xG 0.09F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.09V. Arvidsson · Missed · xG 0.07P. Aberg · Missed · xG 0.07R. Johansen · On goal · xG 0.06P. Subban · On goal · xG 0.06R. Johansen · Goal · xG 0.06P. Subban · Missed · xG 0.05R. Ellis · On goal · xG 0.05P. Subban · On goal · xG 0.05P. Subban · Missed · xG 0.04K. Fiala · On goal · xG 0.04R. Ellis · On goal · xG 0.04R. Ellis · On goal · xG 0.04K. Fiala · On goal · xG 0.04K. Fiala · On goal · xG 0.03N. Bonino · On goal · xG 0.03R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.03R. Ellis · On goal · xG 0.03V. Arvidsson · On goal · xG 0.03R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.02Y. Weber · On goal · xG 0.02R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.02M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.02M. Ekholm · Missed · xG 0.02F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.01M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.01R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.01R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.01R. Ellis · On goal · xG 0.01R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.01P. Aberg · On goal · xG 0.01M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.00
NSH3 G · 2.3 xG · 42 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CGYvsNSH
3.44 G
All situations
3 G2.3
2.02 G
Even strength
3 G1.8
1.02 G
Power play
0 G0.5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 81 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CGY61%39%NSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.95 – 2.32

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CGYvsNSH
31
Shots on goal
32
43%
Faceoffs
57%
2/3
Power play
0/5
12
Penalty minutes
8
18
Hits
17
18
Blocked shots
11
2
Giveaways
5
2
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Calgary Flames skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
5M. GiordanoD011+130.30070—28:20
27D. HamiltonD112-130.46244—23:24
24T. HamonicD000030.09310—23:13
7T. BrodieD000-210.01120—22:07
11M. BacklundC000-100.001024120:19
67M. FrolikR000-120.53200—20:01
13J. GaudreauL011020.05000—19:58
23S. MonahanC022060.850045419:23
19M. TkachukL112+110.251005016:02
79M. FerlandL000020.15500—15:20
77M. JankowskiL101-140.350002914:05
26M. StoneD000-100.00110—13:37
93S. BennettC011-110.01020011:53
21G. HathawayR000-100.11100—11:36
61B. KulakD000010.14000—09:33
20C. LazarC101+110.071103307:28
18M. StajanC000+100.000024007:02
56R. LombergL000+110.01000—04:42
Calgary Flames goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
33D. Rittich(W)32293.9062.35-0.6559:57

Season series

CGY leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).