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Predators at Islanders
NHL

Nashville Predators at New York Islanders

NHL scoreboard
Nashville Predators
▸5
New York Islanders
4
Final/OTTV FS-TN, MSG+·Barclays Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the New York Islanders 5-4 in overtime, Roman Josi scoring at 3:42. The Predators came back from two goals down. The Islanders led 4-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Roman Josi's goal at 3:42 of overtime, which took the Predators' chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Predators, 3.7 to 2.7; shots on goal were NSH 47, NYI 28. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Predators win a replay of these chances 66% of the time. Pekka Rinne stopped 24 of 28 (.857), 1.3 goals below expected; Jaroslav Halak stopped 42 of 47 (.894), 1.3 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Roman Josi (1 G), 2. Kevin Fiala (2 G), 3. Andrew Ladd (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NSH
    R. Josi1 G
  2. ★★
    NSH
    K. Fiala2 G
  3. ★★★
    NYI
    A. Ladd2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
NSHNSH2181191614547
NYINYI311190701428

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. NYI
    J. Tavares(27)PPG
    J. Bailey (44), A. Lee (16)
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +8 pts
    0-1
    4:55
  2. NSH
    K. Fiala(16)
    K. Turris (22), C. Smith (14)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +14 pts
    1-1
    11:59
  3. NSH
    K. Fiala(17)
    N. Bonino (6), R. Ellis (3)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +14 pts
    2-1
    13:27
  4. NYI
    R. Pulock(5)
    A. Ladd (11), B. Nelson (8)
    slapxG 0.02win prob +14 pts
    2-2
    14:05
  5. NYI
    C. Cizikas(6)
    J. Chimera (9)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +15 pts
    2-3
    17:03

2nd period

  1. NYI
    N. Leddy(8)
    A. Ladd (12), B. Nelson (9)
    slapxG 0.02win prob +15 pts
    2-4
    3:39
  2. NSH
    C. Jarnkrok(12)
    S. Hartnell (6), M. Ekholm (18)
    wristxG 0.24win prob +15 pts
    3-4
    16:25

3rd period

  1. NSH
    R. Johansen(6)
    P. Subban (28), V. Arvidsson (17)
    wristxG 0.21win prob +44 pts
    4-4
    19:17

Overtime

  1. NSH
    R. Josi(9)
    N. Bonino (7)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +51 pts
    5-4
    3:42

Penalties

NSH 10 PIM·NYI 8 PIM

1st

  • 4:04NSHMattias Ekholm · Interferencedrawn by John Tavares2 min
  • 6:09NYIJason Chimera · Cross checkingdrawn by Alexei Emelin2 min
  • 6:09NSHAlexei Emelin · Boardingdrawn by Jason Chimera2 min
  • 6:31NYIJohn Tavares · Hookingdrawn by Ryan Ellis2 min
  • 9:30NSHRoman Josi · Slashingdrawn by Mathew Barzal2 min
  • 14:54NYICasey Cizikas · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

2nd

  • 0:08NSHRyan Johansen · High stickingdrawn by Mathew Barzal2 min
  • 8:43NYICasey Cizikas · Cross checkingdrawn by Miikka Salomaki2 min
  • 12:57NSHMattias Ekholm · Holdingdrawn by Jason Chimera2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NYI goalNSH goalFinal: NYI 0%

Biggest swing: Roman Josi, OT 3:42 — NSH 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.17C. Cizikas · Goal · xG 0.17M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.16J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.16A. Lee · On goal · xG 0.16A. Lee · On goal · xG 0.15J. Bailey · On goal · xG 0.13M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.13A. Lee · On goal · xG 0.12J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.12M. Barzal · Missed · xG 0.11J. Eberle · Missed · xG 0.11J. Chimera · On goal · xG 0.10J. Tavares · Goal · xG 0.09A. Lee · On goal · xG 0.09J. Eberle · On goal · xG 0.08A. Lee · Missed · xG 0.08A. Quine · On goal · xG 0.07R. Pulock · On goal · xG 0.06J. Eberle · On goal · xG 0.06J. Bailey · On goal · xG 0.06A. Lee · On goal · xG 0.06A. Beauvillier · On goal · xG 0.04N. Leddy · Missed · xG 0.03R. Pulock · Missed · xG 0.03R. Pulock · Missed · xG 0.03J. Eberle · On goal · xG 0.03A. Beauvillier · On goal · xG 0.02S. Mayfield · On goal · xG 0.02N. Leddy · Goal · xG 0.02R. Pulock · Goal · xG 0.02T. Hickey · Missed · xG 0.02R. Pulock · On goal · xG 0.01A. Pelech · On goal · xG 0.01M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.01J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.00
NYI4 G · 2.7 xG · 36 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NSHvsNYI
3.75 G
All situations
4 G2.7
2.75 G
Even strength
3 G2.2
1.00 G
Power play
1 G0.6
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 96 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NSH66%34%NYI

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.72 – 2.71

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NSHvsNYI
47
Shots on goal
28
50%
Faceoffs
50%
0/3
Power play
1/4
10
Penalty minutes
8
19
Hits
13
12
Blocked shots
13
12
Giveaways
13
9
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Nashville Predators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
59R. JosiD101+360.37032—27:45
4R. EllisD011+250.32020—25:19
76P. SubbanD011-290.40010—22:57
14M. EkholmD011-130.12104—21:04
33V. ArvidssonL011+140.45020—20:55
92R. JohansenC101020.273023819:56
8K. TurrisC011+110.080107517:25
15C. SmithC011+150.631005015:54
22K. FialaL202+320.24000—15:51
10C. SissonsC000020.052006015:36
25A. EmelinD000000.00322—15:34
19C. JarnkrokC101030.47000015:25
13N. BoninoC022+200.000004514:54
17S. HartnellL011000.10400—12:49
46P. AbergL000010.07110—12:44
51A. WatsonL000-120.0520010011:19
7Y. WeberD000+120.08200—11:15
20M. SalomakiR000-100.05000—07:20
Nashville Predators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35P. Rinne(W)28244.8572.73-1.2761:55

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).