Skip to content
Avalanche at Stars
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
▸4
Dallas Stars
1
FinalTV FS-SW, ALT2·American Airlines Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Dallas Stars 4-1. The Avalanche scored first and never trailed. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Nathan MacKinnon's goal at 6:33 of the third period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 48% to 77%. Expected goals favored the Stars, 3.8 to 2.3; shots on goal were COL 23, DAL 28. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Stars win a replay of these chances 80% of the time. Jonathan Bernier stopped 27 of 28 (.964), 2.8 goals saved above expected; Ben Bishop stopped 19 of 22 (.864), 1.1 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Nathan MacKinnon (1 G), 2. Alexander Kerfoot (1 G, 1 A), 3. Jonathan Bernier (27 saves, .964).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    N. MacKinnon1 G
  2. ★★
    COL
    A. Kerfoot1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    COL
    J. Bernier27 saves, .964

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL160938423
DALDAL0915014128

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    A. Kerfoot(11)
    A. Greer (2), S. Girard (10)
    snapxG 0.15win prob +14 pts
    1-0
    14:09

2nd period

  1. DAL
    J. Benn(18)
    J. Klingberg (34), A. Radulov (23)
    wristxG 0.24win prob +21 pts
    1-1
    15:43

3rd period

  1. COL
    N. MacKinnon(19)
    A. Kerfoot (18), N. Zadorov (9)
    snapxG 0.14win prob +29 pts
    2-1
    6:33
  2. COL
    B. Comeau(8)
    N. Zadorov (10)
    snapxG 0.10win prob +7 pts
    3-1
    18:20
  3. COL
    M. Barberio(3)EN
    P. Nemeth (8), J. Bernier (1)
    slapxG 0.41
    4-1
    19:47

Penalties

COL 10 PIM·DAL 4 PIM

1st

  • 14:50COLNikita Zadorov · Trippingdrawn by Alexander Radulov2 min

2nd

  • 3:52DALGreg Pateryn · Cross checkingdrawn by Nathan MacKinnon2 min
  • 19:52COLPatrik Nemeth · Slashingdrawn by Antoine Roussel2 min

3rd

  • 1:56COLPatrik Nemeth · Interferencedrawn by Dan Hamhuis2 min
  • 18:44COLBlake Comeau · Roughingdrawn by Martin Hanzal2 min
  • 18:44COLErik Johnson · Cross checkingdrawn by Martin Hanzal2 min
  • 18:44DALMartin Hanzal · Roughingdrawn by Blake Comeau2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DAL goalCOL goalFinal: DAL 0%

Biggest swing: Nathan MacKinnon, 3rd 6:33 — COL 48% → 77%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Benn · Goal · xG 0.24J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.22A. Roussel · On goal · xG 0.21J. Benn · Missed · xG 0.18R. Elie · On goal · xG 0.17B. Ritchie · On goal · xG 0.16A. Radulov · On goal · xG 0.14T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.14M. Janmark · On goal · xG 0.14A. Roussel · On goal · xG 0.14T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.14T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.13T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.12J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.11J. Klingberg · On goal · xG 0.11M. Hanzal · Missed · xG 0.10M. Hanzal · On goal · xG 0.10T. Seguin · Missed · xG 0.09A. Radulov · On goal · xG 0.08M. Janmark · Missed · xG 0.08A. Radulov · Missed · xG 0.08J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.07M. Hanzal · Missed · xG 0.07A. Roussel · Missed · xG 0.06M. Janmark · Missed · xG 0.06R. Elie · Missed · xG 0.06J. Klingberg · On goal · xG 0.06G. Pateryn · Missed · xG 0.05J. Klingberg · On goal · xG 0.04T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.04A. Radulov · Missed · xG 0.04J. Spezza · On goal · xG 0.04M. Janmark · Missed · xG 0.04T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.04D. Hamhuis · Missed · xG 0.03J. Benn · Missed · xG 0.03R. Faksa · On goal · xG 0.03T. Seguin · Missed · xG 0.02E. Lindell · Missed · xG 0.02T. Pitlick · On goal · xG 0.02J. Honka · On goal · xG 0.02A. Radulov · Missed · xG 0.02T. Pitlick · Missed · xG 0.01G. Pateryn · Missed · xG 0.01E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.01D. Hamhuis · Missed · xG 0.01D. Shore · On goal · xG 0.01J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.00
DAL1 G · 3.8 xG · 48 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsDAL
2.33 G
All situations
1 G3.8
1.83 G
Even strength
1 G2.3
0.00 G
Power play
0 G1.5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 81 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL20%80%DAL

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.84 – 3.73

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsDAL
23
Shots on goal
28
32%
Faceoffs
68%
0/1
Power play
0/4
10
Penalty minutes
4
26
Hits
18
14
Blocked shots
14
6
Giveaways
8
0
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
6E. JohnsonD000+110.01112—26:56
16N. ZadorovD022010.10902—23:14
44M. BarberioD101+110.42020—20:05
92G. LandeskogL000010.140005719:01
29N. MacKinnonC101+140.620005018:39
12P. NemethD011+210.00134—18:08
34C. SoderbergC000+110.010101817:56
96M. RantanenR000010.04100—16:58
49S. GirardD011+120.03020—16:48
14B. ComeauL101030.35402—16:18
83M. NietoL000+100.03100—15:39
57G. BourqueL000000.00540—14:38
22C. WilsonC000000.00000013:19
17T. JostC000030.170003313:18
54A. LindholmD000+100.00200—13:17
64N. YakupovR000+130.19010—10:07
13A. KerfootC112+210.151004009:42
24A. GreerL011+200.00100—08:41
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
45J. Bernier(W)28271.9643.79+2.7960:00

Season series

COL leads 3-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).