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Los Angeles Kings at New York Islanders

Final/OTTV FS-W, MSG+·Barclays Center

Recap

written from the game data

The New York Islanders beat the Los Angeles Kings 4-3 in overtime, Jordan Eberle scoring at 1:54. The Islanders came back from two goals down. The Kings led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jordan Eberle's goal at 1:54 of overtime, which took the Islanders' chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Islanders, 3.1 to 2.3; shots on goal were LAK 29, NYI 33. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Islanders win a replay of these chances 65% of the time. Darcy Kuemper stopped 29 of 33 (.879), 0.9 goals below expected; Thomas Greiss stopped 26 of 29 (.897), 0.7 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. John Tavares (1 G, 2 A), 2. Jordan Eberle (1 G), 3. Tyler Toffoli (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NYI
    J. Tavares1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    NYI
    J. Eberle1 G
  3. ★★★
    LAK
    T. Toffoli1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
LAKLAK2100811001329
NYINYI1140102811433

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. LAK
    slapxG 0.02win prob +14 pts
    1-0
    12:56
  2. LAK
    T. Toffoli(15)PPG
    wristxG 0.10win prob +13 pts
    2-0
    17:11
  3. NYI
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +16 pts
    2-1
    19:10

3rd period

  1. NYI
    J. Tavares(19)PPG
    A. Lee (15), J. Bailey (31)
    slapxG 0.07win prob +21 pts
    2-2
    4:15
  2. NYI
    A. Lee(20)
    backhandxG 0.12win prob +40 pts
    2-3
    16:44
  3. LAK
    wristxG 0.20win prob +44 pts
    3-3
    19:47

Overtime

  1. NYI
    wristxG 0.13win prob +49 pts
    3-4
    1:54

Penalties

LAK 15 PIM·NYI 11 PIM

1st

  • 1:11LAKAdrian Kempe · Trippingdrawn by John Tavares2 min
  • 8:21NYIScott Mayfield · Interferencedrawn by Marian Gaborik2 min
  • 16:44NYIAdam Pelech · Holdingdrawn by Adrian Kempe2 min

2nd

  • 2:27NYIJason Chimera · Fightingdrawn by Trevor Lewis5 min
  • 2:27LAKTrevor Lewis · Fightingdrawn by Jason Chimera5 min
  • 4:12LAKMarian Gaborik · High stickingdrawn by Johnny Boychuk2 min
  • 5:48LAKTorrey Mitchell · Hookingdrawn by Steve Bernier2 min

3rd

  • 3:50LAKJake Muzzin · Elbowingdrawn by Cal Clutterbuck2 min
  • 6:27LAKAnze Kopitar · Trippingdrawn by Ryan Pulock2 min
  • 9:00NYICal Clutterbuck · Hookingdrawn by Derek Forbort2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NYI goalLAK goalFinal: NYI 100%

Biggest swing: Jordan Eberle, OT 1:54 — NYI 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
C. Clutterbuck · On goal · xG 0.22C. Clutterbuck · On goal · xG 0.19J. Eberle · On goal · xG 0.16B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.15S. Bernier · Missed · xG 0.14J. Eberle · Goal · xG 0.13A. Lee · On goal · xG 0.13A. Lee · On goal · xG 0.12A. Lee · Goal · xG 0.12J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.12S. Bernier · On goal · xG 0.11J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.11A. Lee · On goal · xG 0.10J. Eberle · Missed · xG 0.09A. Ladd · Missed · xG 0.09J. Bailey · On goal · xG 0.09B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.09S. Bernier · On goal · xG 0.08J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.07J. Tavares · Goal · xG 0.07J. Bailey · Goal · xG 0.07J. Bailey · Missed · xG 0.06J. Bailey · On goal · xG 0.06B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.06M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.04N. Leddy · On goal · xG 0.04S. Bernier · On goal · xG 0.04J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.04J. Chimera · On goal · xG 0.03N. Leddy · On goal · xG 0.03J. Boychuk · On goal · xG 0.03C. de Haan · Missed · xG 0.03J. Eberle · Missed · xG 0.03J. Boychuk · Missed · xG 0.02A. Lee · Missed · xG 0.02R. Pulock · Missed · xG 0.02A. Pelech · On goal · xG 0.01J. Chimera · On goal · xG 0.01R. Pulock · Missed · xG 0.01J. Boychuk · On goal · xG 0.01S. Mayfield · Missed · xG 0.00N. Leddy · On goal · xG 0.00A. Beauvillier · On goal · xG 0.00C. de Haan · On goal · xG 0.00J. Boychuk · On goal · xG 0.00
NYI4 G · 3.1 xG · 45 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

LAKvsNYI
2.33 G
All situations
4 G3.1
1.52 G
Even strength
3 G2.4
0.71 G
Power play
1 G0.7
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 89 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
LAK35%65%NYI

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.25 – 3.09

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

LAKvsNYI
29
Shots on goal
33
37%
Faceoffs
63%
1/3
Power play
1/5
15
Penalty minutes
11
31
Hits
24
18
Blocked shots
12
16
Giveaways
13
7
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Los Angeles Kings skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8D. DoughtyD011030.13240—26:14
6J. MuzzinD000-320.06532—26:04
11A. KopitarC101030.470024124:07
27A. MartinezD011+110.00110—23:36
23D. BrownR011000.06400—22:47
24D. ForbortD000020.05360—19:11
73T. ToffoliC112+230.25210018:42
19A. IafalloL000-100.01110—17:31
70T. PearsonL011+210.09200—15:39
9A. KempeR000020.442122715:09
21N. ShoreC000000.010002714:12
22T. LewisC000-130.1420510013:36
7O. FantenbergD101+130.10100—13:03
5C. FolinD000010.02100—12:45
12M. GaborikR000-110.12112—10:11
13K. CliffordL000010.15300—09:06
36J. JokinenL000-120.0210010008:40
71T. MitchellC000-110.13002007:56
Los Angeles Kings goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35D. Kuemper(O)33294.8793.10-0.9060:42

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).