UTSA vs Texas State Prediction, Picks & Odds — Sep 12, 2026

Texas State won the last meeting on the road, 43-36, and on last season's ledger it is the better team: #24 in adjusted efficiency against UTSA's #57, six points per 100 plays apart. UTSA is projected to win 30-25 anyway. Its explosive passing against this Texas State secondary is a four-standard-deviation gap, the widest edge on the field.

2%

-38

5%

-32

8%

-24

12%

-18

15%

-10

16%

-4

15%

+4

11%

+10

7%

+18

4%

+24

2%

+32

1%

+38

0%

+46

UTSA winsTexas State wins

Market: UTSA −1Projected: UTSA by 5 (62%)

The range of outcomes for this game. Each bar is how often the final margin lands in that range — the more it leans toward UTSA, the more likely UTSA wins.

GRIDPEX.COM

The gap that doesn't close

Owen McCown projects for 203 to 315 passing yards with a 93% chance of a touchdown, against a pass defense that sits 152nd of 185 by what it allows. The chunk-play edge is the headline. The staying-on-schedule edge, +2.57 to UTSA, is what makes it repeatable: an offense that avoids second-and-long never hands this secondary the obvious passing downs.

◄Texas StatefavorsUTSA►

Explosive passingUTSA offense vs Texas State defenseUTSA — overwhelming edge

Staying on scheduleUTSA offense vs Texas State defenseUTSA — overwhelming edge

Overall efficiencyUTSA offense vs Texas State defenseUTSA — big edge

Passing gameTexas State offense vs UTSA defenseTexas State — big edge

Short-yardage / powerUTSA offense vs Texas State defenseUTSA — clear edge

Each unit matchup this season, sorted by how decisive it is — the top bar is what most tilts the game. Bars toward UTSA are battles it should win; toward Texas State are ones Texas State wins.

GRIDPEX.COM

The ground game is a complement. Will Henderson III's band runs 36 to 100 rushing yards with a 37% touchdown chance, wide enough that UTSA cannot plan on him carrying a scoring drive. What UTSA does own on the ground is short yardage, +1.46, which matters at the goal line and on fourth-and-two, where a passing edge stops helping.

Texas State's answer runs entirely through the air

Brad Jackson draws the sturdiest unit in the game, a UTSA pass defense 70th of 185 by what it allows, and still projects for 189 to 280 yards with a 78% touchdown chance. The passing game, +1.62, is the only unit edge Texas State holds. Beau Sparks at 56 to 119 receiving yards and a 52% touchdown chance is the closest thing either side has to a red-zone certainty.

Behind that, the margins get thin fast. Chris Dawn Jr. projects for 45 to 113 yards, Kylen Evans 18 to 39. On the ground, Jaylen Jenkins sits at 15 to 42 rushing yards and Torrance Burgess Jr. at 16 to 31, bands that top out around one good drive. No run projection worth respecting, against a defense already ahead on down-and-distance, leaves a single lever, and UTSA can sit on it.

Last week cut both Ways, and not the way the scores read

Texas State lost 7-59 at Texas and went three-and-out on only 18.2% of eleven drives. It moved the ball and then stopped, scoring on 18.2% of them, a finishing failure rather than a functional one. UTSA's 45-16 win over UT Rio Grande Valley scored on half of twelve drives at 42.8 yards a drive, but went three-and-out on 33.3%. That is a boom-or-bust offense against an opponent that should never have produced either.

Texas State keeps beating its own roster

Texas State ranks 82nd in talent and 49th in results, the biggest overachiever in this matchup, and the recruiting advantage UTSA carries into Saturday is narrow enough to explain almost none of the projected margin. Counting stars underrates this team, which is how it won 43-36 as the less-regarded roster a year ago.

UTSA#72 talent → #74 on field

Texas State#82 talent → #49 on field

National recruiting-talent rank vs our on-field power rank. Bigger bar = bigger overachiever.

GRIDPEX.COM

That #24 describes 2025. Texas State has one blowout loss since; UTSA has one win over an overmatched opponent.

◄Texas StatefavorsUTSA►

Roster talentoverall talent level of the roster — recruiting pedigree plus an independent preseason roster gradeTexas State +1

Each ingredient of our projection and the side it favors — bars toward UTSA are why it's the pick (home field is counted separately).

GRIDPEX.COM

How Texas State takes it back

The path is the one they already walked: Jackson and Sparks converting inside the twenty at the rate their projections imply, and UTSA's offense repeating the 33.3% three-and-out rate it posted last week against far lesser competition. Texas State's win probability is 38%, and our projection gives a one-score finish a little better than a one-in-three chance. The game is closer to live than a 62% favorite usually looks.

UTSA's job: throw at the coverage that ranks 152nd of 185, stay ahead of the sticks, and convert the short-yardage edge into touchdowns instead of field goals in a game projected past 64 points. Texas State has to make the rematch a possession fight and get its receivers loose against the sturdiest unit on the field.