The most reliable edge in betting isn't a model. It's having more than one sportsbook
Books disagree on the same game by about three-quarters of a point, and 30% of the time by a full point or more. Always taking the best available number is worth about +1.7% in return — mechanically, with no prediction at all.
We spent months trying to build a model that beats the market. Here is the deflating punch line: the most dependable edge we measured requires no model whatsoever. It's just owning accounts at more than one sportsbook.
At any given moment the books don't agree. On the same game they differ by about three-quarters of a point on average, and 30% of the time by a full point or more. If you've already decided to bet a side, you take whichever book offers the best number — and that one habit, across a season, is worth about 1.7% in return. For comparison, that's larger than any prediction edge we could honestly validate on the main line.