The edge in betting isn't a smarter pick. It's a faster one
The closing line is a coin flip to beat. The OPENING line is not — bet it and the market moves toward you 56% of the time, worth nearly half a point of closing-line value on every wager. That gap between open and close is the only real edge we found.
A betting line has two moments worth caring about: when it opens, and when it closes. The close is razor-sharp — the sum of every sharp bettor's opinion and a day's worth of money. The open is a first draft. It's softer, posted before the market has done its homework, and over the next few days it drifts toward the truth.
That drift is the entire game. When we bet the opening number and then watch where the line closes, it moves toward our side about 56% of the time — enough that, on average, we've locked in a number nearly half a point better than the closing line. In this business that number has a name, closing-line value, and it is the single most reliable predictor of whether a bettor is actually good or just lucky.