Preview · North Carolina at TCU

TCU's offense outguns North Carolina

transfer portal losses hurt north carolina

The Film Room

Matchups · Wed, Aug 26, 2026

3 min read

TCU 70%

Model favorite

to win · market: 68%

21–29

Projected score

North Carolina–TCU · neutral field

Model total

market 50 · under 45%

36%

One-score game

decided by ≤3: 16%

The TCU Horned Frogs are a 6.5-point favorite over the North Carolina Tar Heels, with a projected score of 29-21. The key to this matchup lies in the quarterback position, where TCU's Jaden Craig has a slight edge over North Carolina's Taron Dickens. Craig, a transfer from Harvard, has a +0.209 career EPA/play, while Dickens, a transfer from Western Carolina, has a +0.174 career EPA/play.

	Likely starter	Why we project him
North Carolina	Taron Dickens (from Western Carolina)	Transfer projection — +0.17 career EPA/play, no FBS snaps yet
TCU	Jaden Craig (from Harvard)	Transfer projection — +0.21 career EPA/play, no FBS snaps yet

	Player	Last season
North Carolina	Demon June (RB)	+0.14 EPA/play, 28% rush share
North Carolina	Benjamin Hall (RB)	-0.04 EPA/play, 22% rush share
North Carolina	Jordan Shipp (WR)	+0.52 EPA/play, 22% target share
TCU	Kevorian Barnes (RB)	+0.01 EPA/play, 48% rush share
TCU	Jeremy Payne (RB)	+0.22 EPA/play, 30% rush share
TCU	Eric McAlister (WR)	+0.72 EPA/play, 23% target share

	Added	Lost	Net stars	Key departures/adds
North Carolina	20	31	-36	D'Antre Robinson (DL); William Boone (OT)
TCU	12	14	-5	Josh Hoover (QB); Jonathan Bax (EDGE)

TCU's offense outguns North Carolina

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