Yankees at Marlins
Last play · Ismael Munguia flies out to left fielder Javier Sanoja.
Win probability
Marlins100%
NYY 0%MIA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYY 2 – 4 MIA
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 6.5 ↑
fair over 47.4% · hold 5.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-225 / +175
Marlins favored ↑50%Yankees favored ↓
Biggest swing · Matt Mervis homers (4) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 3) — +18% Marlins
4Graham Pauley homers (1) on a line drive to right center field.2–4
4Jasson Domínguez flies out to left fielder Griffin Conine.2–3
3Matt Mervis homers (4) on a fly ball to right field.1–3
1Griffin Conine walks. Jonah Bride scores. Kyle Stowers to 3rd. Otto Lopez to 2nd.1–2
1Kyle Stowers singles on a fly ball to left fielder Jasson Domínguez. Matt Mervis scores. Jonah Bride to 2nd.1–1
1Cody Bellinger homers (4) on a fly ball to center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.










