Mariners at Padres
SEA7–
SD7Last play · Kai Murphy strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Padres0%
SEA 100%SD 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 2 – 6 SD
Padres led after 5
Total runs
10.5
opened 12.5 ↓
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-125 / +100
Padres favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jack Costello grounds out, shortstop Axel Sanchez to first baseman Gabriel Moncada. Tyler Robertson scores. Clay Dungan to 3rd. Francisco Acuna to 2nd. (inning 9) — +42% Padres
9Jack Costello grounds out, shortstop Axel Sanchez to first baseman Gabriel Moncada. Tyler Robertson scores. Clay Dungan to 3rd. Francisco Acuna to 2nd.7–7
7Axel Sanchez homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field. Josh Caron scores.7–6
6Lazaro Montes grounds into a force out, second baseman Clay Dungan to shortstop Francisco Acuna. Colin Davis scores. Kelvin Alcantara to 3rd. Carlos Jimenez out at 2nd. Lazaro Montes to 1st.5–6
6Colin Davis doubles (1) on a line drive to left fielder Kai Murphy. Axel Sanchez scores.4–6
6Axel Sanchez triples (1) on a ground ball to right fielder Jake Snider. George Feliz scores.3–6
4Mike Brosseau out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Kelvin Alcantara. Martín Maldonado scores. Trenton Brooks to 3rd.2–6
2Trenton Brooks homers (2) on a fly ball to left field. Martín Maldonado scores.2–5
2Martín Maldonado singles on a line drive to right fielder Kelvin Alcantara. Andy Thomas scores. Martín Maldonado to 3rd. Martín Maldonado advances to 3rd, on a fielding error by right fielder Kelvin Alcantara.2–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.