Mets at Astros
Last play · Juan Soto strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Astros100%
NYM 0%HOU 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 0 – 3 HOU
Astros led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+100 / -120
Astros favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Yainer Diaz singles on a ground ball to center fielder Tyrone Taylor. Isaac Paredes scores. Christian Walker to 2nd. (inning 3) — +12% Astros
9Francisco Lindor out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jake Meyers. Starling Marte scores. Tyrone Taylor to 3rd.1–3
3Jeremy Peña grounds into a force out, shortstop Francisco Lindor to second baseman Luisangel Acuña. Christian Walker scores. Yainer Diaz out at 2nd. Throwing error by second baseman Luisangel Acuña.0–3
3Yainer Diaz singles on a ground ball to center fielder Tyrone Taylor. Isaac Paredes scores. Christian Walker to 2nd.0–2
2Jake Meyers grounds into a force out, shortstop Francisco Lindor to second baseman Luisangel Acuña. Jeremy Peña scores. Cam Smith to 3rd. Brendan Rodgers out at 2nd. Jake Meyers to 1st.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.










