Cubs at D-backs
Last play · Josh Naylor grounds out, second baseman Nico Hoerner to first baseman Michael Busch.
Win probability
D-backs0%
CHC 100%AZ 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 7 – 3 AZ
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 53.2% · hold 4.3%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+125 / -150
D-backs favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Miguel Amaya doubles (2) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr., deflected by center fielder Jake McCarthy. Michael Busch scores. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores. Matt Shaw scores. (inning 5) — -29% Cubs
9Lourdes Gurriel Jr. grounds out, shortstop Dansby Swanson to first baseman Michael Busch. Ketel Marte scores.10–6
9Miguel Amaya doubles (3) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Nico Hoerner scores. Matt Shaw scores.10–5
6Geraldo Perdomo out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Ian Happ. Eugenio Suárez scores.8–5
6Jake McCarthy out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Kyle Tucker. Gabriel Moreno scores. Eugenio Suárez to 3rd.8–4
6Nico Hoerner singles on a ground ball to right fielder Corbin Carroll. Seiya Suzuki scores.8–3
5Miguel Amaya doubles (2) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr., deflected by center fielder Jake McCarthy. Michael Busch scores. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores. Matt Shaw scores.7–3
4Geraldo Perdomo singles on a ground ball to third baseman Matt Shaw. Gabriel Moreno scores. Randal Grichuk to 3rd.4–3
4Ian Happ homers (1) on a line drive to right field.4–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.










