Twins at Cardinals
Last play · Matt Wallner strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Cardinals100%
MIN 0%STL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIN 2 – 4 STL
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 5.5 ↑
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-115 / -105
Cardinals favored ↑50%Twins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Lars Nootbaar homers (1) on a line drive to right field. Jordan Walker scores. (inning 2) — +16% Cardinals
8Nolan Arenado homers (1) on a fly ball to left field.3–5
6Willi Castro doubles (1) on a ground ball to center fielder Victor Scott II. Trevor Larnach scores. Ryan Jeffers to 3rd.3–4
5Harrison Bader homers (1) on a line drive to left field. Jose F Miranda scores.2–4
3Iván Herrera singles on a ground ball to right fielder Matt Wallner. Brendan Donovan scores.0–4
2Lars Nootbaar homers (1) on a line drive to right field. Jordan Walker scores.0–3
1Brendan Donovan singles on a ground ball to shortstop Carlos Correa. Lars Nootbaar scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.










