Orioles at Blue Jays
Last play · Ryan Mountcastle strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Blue Jays100%
BAL 0%TOR 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 2 – 5 TOR
Blue Jays led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9.5 ↓
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+105 / -125
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Alan Roden out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Tyler O'Neill. George Springer scores. Will Wagner to 3rd. (inning 4) — +16% Blue Jays
7Ernie Clement doubles (1) on a fly ball to left fielder Colton Cowser. Anthony Santander scores. Andrés Giménez scores.2–8
6Bo Bichette singles on a ground ball to center fielder Cedric Mullins. Nathan Lukes scores.2–6
4Anthony Santander singles on a ground ball to right fielder Tyler O'Neill. Bo Bichette scores. Anthony Santander to 3rd. Throwing error by shortstop Jorge Mateo.2–5
4Vladimir Guerrero Jr. out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Cedric Mullins. Nathan Lukes scores.2–4
4Bo Bichette singles on a ground ball to right fielder Tyler O'Neill. Nathan Lukes to 3rd.2–3
4Alan Roden out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Tyler O'Neill. George Springer scores. Will Wagner to 3rd.2–2
4Nathan Lukes walks. Alejandro Kirk scores. George Springer to 3rd. Will Wagner to 2nd.2–1
4Tyler O'Neill out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Alan Roden. Adley Rutschman scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.










