Pirates at Marlins
Last play · Derek Hill strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Marlins0%
PIT 100%MIA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 4 – 1 MIA
Pirates led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 5.5 ↑
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-145 / +120
Marlins favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Oneil Cruz homers (1) on a line drive to right field. Tommy Pham scores. (inning 5) — -17% Pirates
9Otto Lopez homers (1) on a fly ball to center field. Matt Mervis scores.4–3
5Graham Pauley doubles (1) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Bryan Reynolds. Derek Hill scores.4–1
5Oneil Cruz homers (1) on a line drive to right field. Tommy Pham scores.4–0
4Adam Frazier out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Griffin Conine. Joey Bart scores.2–0
4Andrew McCutchen doubles (1) on a line drive to left fielder Kyle Stowers. Oneil Cruz scores. Joey Bart to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.










