Braves at Padres
Last play · Ozzie Albies grounds out, second baseman Jake Cronenworth to first baseman Luis Arraez.
Win probability
Padres100%
ATL 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 4 – 3 SD
Braves led after 5
Total runs
6.5
opened 5.5 ↑
fair over 53.2% · hold 4.3%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-120 / +100
Padres favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Gavin Sheets homers (1) on a fly ball to center field. (inning 7) — +28% Padres
7Jackson Merrill out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Jarred Kelenic. Manny Machado scores. Xander Bogaerts to 3rd.4–7
7Manny Machado doubles (2) on a ground ball to left fielder Jurickson Profar. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores.4–6
7Luis Arraez out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Jarred Kelenic. Jason Heyward scores. Fernando Tatis Jr. to 3rd.4–5
7Gavin Sheets homers (1) on a fly ball to center field.4–4
4Austin Riley homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field.4–3
3Jackson Merrill grounds out to first baseman Matt Olson. Manny Machado scores. Xander Bogaerts to 2nd.3–3
3Ozzie Albies homers (1) on a fly ball to right field. Marcell Ozuna scores.3–2
1Jackson Merrill singles on a line drive to center fielder Michael Harris II. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores. Manny Machado scores.1–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.










