Braves at Padres
Last play · Jarred Kelenic strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Padres100%
ATL 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 3 – 3 SD
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 6.5 ↑
fair over 46.8% · hold 4.3%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-155 / +130
Padres favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jake Cronenworth homers (1) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 8) — +38% Padres
8Jake Cronenworth homers (1) on a fly ball to right field.3–4
5Jarred Kelenic homers (1) on a fly ball to right field.3–3
3Xander Bogaerts doubles (1) on a ground ball to center fielder Michael Harris II. Jackson Merrill scores. Jake Cronenworth to 3rd.2–3
3Marcell Ozuna singles on a ground ball to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Jurickson Profar scores. Austin Riley scores. Matt Olson to 2nd.2–2
2Martín Maldonado singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Michael Harris II. Xander Bogaerts scores. Jason Heyward to 3rd.0–2
1Fernando Tatis Jr. homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.










