Mets at Astros
Last play · Mark Vientos lines out to shortstop Jeremy Peña.
Win probability
Astros100%
NYM 0%HOU 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 0 – 1 HOU
Astros led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 6.5 ↑
fair over 54.3% · hold 4.1%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+100 / -120
Astros favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jeremy Peña homers (1) on a line drive to left field. (inning 5) — +22% Astros
6Yordan Alvarez doubles (1) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jose Siri. Isaac Paredes scores.1–2
6Juan Soto grounds out, pitcher Spencer Arrighetti to first baseman Christian Walker. Jose Siri scores.1–1
5Jeremy Peña homers (1) on a line drive to left field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.










