Braves at Padres
Last play · Drake Baldwin called out on strikes.
Win probability
Padres100%
ATL 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 0 – 0 SD
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 6.5 ↑
fair over 46.8% · hold 4.3%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-155 / +130
Padres favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Yuli Gurriel singles on a ground ball to left fielder Jurickson Profar. Jake Cronenworth scores. Xander Bogaerts to 2nd. (inning 7) — +21% Padres
7Yuli Gurriel singles on a ground ball to left fielder Jurickson Profar. Jake Cronenworth scores. Xander Bogaerts to 2nd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.










