Mets at Astros
Last play · Cam Smith flies out to right fielder Juan Soto.
Win probability
Astros0%
NYM 100%HOU 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 3 – 1 HOU
Mets led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 6.5 ↑
fair over 54.3% · hold 4.1%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+100 / -120
Astros favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Mark Vientos doubles (1) on a line drive to left fielder Jose Altuve. Brandon Nimmo scores. (inning 2) — -15% Mets
4Yordan Alvarez out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Tyrone Taylor. Jose Altuve scores.3–1
3Juan Soto homers (1) on a fly ball to right field.3–0
2Jesse Winker singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jake Meyers. Mark Vientos scores.2–0
2Mark Vientos doubles (1) on a line drive to left fielder Jose Altuve. Brandon Nimmo scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.










