Cardinals at Mets
Last play · Francisco Lindor homers (2) on a fly ball to right field.
Win probability
Mets100%
STL 0%NYM 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 2 – 2 NYM
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 6.5 ↑
fair over 46.8% · hold 4.3%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+165 / -200
Mets favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brendan Donovan homers (3) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 9) — -41% Cardinals
9Francisco Lindor homers (2) on a fly ball to right field.4–5
9Brendan Donovan homers (3) on a fly ball to right field.4–4
8Luis Torrens doubles (6) on a ground ball to left fielder Victor Scott II. Brandon Nimmo scores.3–4
6Mark Vientos homers (2) on a fly ball to left field.3–3
6Nolan Arenado singles on a line drive to left fielder Brandon Nimmo. Willson Contreras scores.3–2
5Juan Soto singles on a ground ball to right fielder Jordan Walker. Tyrone Taylor scores.2–2
5Tyrone Taylor triples (2) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Jordan Walker. Brett Baty scores.2–1
4Jordan Walker singles on a ground ball to right fielder Juan Soto, deflected by first baseman Pete Alonso. Brendan Donovan scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.










