Padres at Astros
Last play · Luis Arraez grounds out, second baseman Brendan Rodgers to first baseman Christian Walker.
Win probability
Astros100%
SD 0%HOU 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 2 – 5 HOU
Astros led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 9.5 ↓
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-120 / +100
Astros favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Cam Smith homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field. Yainer Diaz scores. Jake Meyers scores. (inning 2) — +35% Astros
8Jake Meyers singles on a line drive to left fielder Oscar Gonzalez. Jeremy Peña scores.4–6
7Luis Arraez homers (3) on a fly ball to right field. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores.4–5
4Cam Smith homers (3) on a fly ball to left center field.2–5
4Oscar Gonzalez singles on a ground ball to right fielder Cam Smith. Xander Bogaerts scores.2–4
3Yainer Diaz singles on a fly ball to left fielder Oscar Gonzalez. Christian Walker scores.1–4
2Cam Smith homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field. Yainer Diaz scores. Jake Meyers scores.1–3
2Tyler Wade grounds into a force out, shortstop Jeremy Peña to second baseman Brendan Rodgers. Gavin Sheets scores. Oscar Gonzalez to 3rd. Jose Iglesias out at 2nd. Tyler Wade to 1st.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.










