Padres at Astros
Last play · Yuli Gurriel flies out to right fielder Cam Smith.
Win probability
Astros100%
SD 0%HOU 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 2 – 0 HOU
Padres led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 9.5 ↓
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-120 / +100
Astros favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Christian Walker homers (2) on a line drive to left field. Isaac Paredes scores. (inning 6) — +31% Astros
7Isaac Paredes singles on a fly ball to second baseman Tyler Wade. Victor Caratini scores. Cam Smith to 3rd.2–3
6Christian Walker homers (2) on a line drive to left field. Isaac Paredes scores.2–2
5Manny Machado doubles (9) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Jake Meyers. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores.2–0
3Fernando Tatis Jr. homers (7) on a line drive to left field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.










