Cardinals at Braves
Last play · Ozzie Albies lines out to second baseman Nolan Gorman.
Win probability
Braves0%
STL 100%ATL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 2 – 4 ATL
Braves led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9.5 ↓
fair over 54.3% · hold 4.1%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+120 / -145
Braves favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Braves challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Nolan Gorman doubles (4) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Jarred Kelenic. Victor Scott II scores. Lars Nootbaar scores. Willson Contreras scores. Nolan Gorman to 3rd. (inning 8) — -47% Cardinals
9Lars Nootbaar singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Jarred Kelenic. Victor Scott II scores.10–4
9Masyn Winn out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Jarred Kelenic. Pedro Pagés scores. Victor Scott II to 3rd.9–4
9Victor Scott II doubles (5) on a line drive to left fielder Alex Verdugo. Alec Burleson scores. Pedro Pagés to 3rd.8–4
8Braves challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Nolan Gorman doubles (4) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Jarred Kelenic. Victor Scott II scores. Lars Nootbaar scores. Willson Contreras scores. Nolan Gorman to 3rd.7–4
6Dylan Lee intentionally walks Willson Contreras.4–4
6Masyn Winn singles on a ground ball to left fielder Alex Verdugo. Alec Burleson scores. Jordan Walker to 3rd. Victor Scott II to 2nd.3–4
5Matt Olson homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field.2–4
4Austin Riley singles on a soft ground ball to pitcher Andre Pallante. Alex Verdugo scores. Austin Riley to 2nd. Austin Riley advances to 2nd, on a throwing error by pitcher Andre Pallante.2–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.










