Padres at Tigers
Last play · Colt Keith flies out to left fielder Tirso Ornelas.
Win probability
Tigers0%
SD 100%DET 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 2 – 0 DET
Padres led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 45.7% · hold 4.1%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+120 / -145
Tigers favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Elias Díaz homers (1) on a fly ball to left field. Xander Bogaerts scores. (inning 2) — -24% Padres
2Elias Díaz homers (1) on a fly ball to left field. Xander Bogaerts scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.










