Blue Jays at Astros
Last play · George Springer flies out to right fielder Chas McCormick.
Win probability
Astros100%
TOR 0%HOU 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 1 – 3 HOU
Astros led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+100 / -120
Astros favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Christian Walker singles on a ground ball to center fielder Nathan Lukes. Yordan Alvarez scores. Jeremy Peña to 3rd. (inning 1) — +9% Astros
7Isaac Paredes homers (4) on a fly ball to left field.1–5
6Yainer Diaz doubles (3) on a line drive to left fielder Alan Roden. Christian Walker scores. Brendan Rodgers to 3rd.1–4
3Nathan Lukes homers (1) on a fly ball to right center field.1–3
1Brendan Rodgers out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Alan Roden. Jeremy Peña scores.0–3
1Christian Walker singles on a ground ball to center fielder Nathan Lukes. Yordan Alvarez scores. Jeremy Peña to 3rd.0–2
1Jeremy Peña singles on a soft ground ball to third baseman Ernie Clement. Jose Altuve scores. Yordan Alvarez to 2nd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.










