Astros at Royals
Last play · Isaac Paredes called out on strikes.
Win probability
Royals100%
HOU 0%KC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 0 – 1 KC
Royals led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 6.5 ↑
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-120 / +100
Royals favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Kyle Isbel out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Cam Smith. Drew Waters scores. (inning 5) — +15% Royals
6Hunter Renfroe out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jake Meyers. Vinnie Pasquantino scores. Maikel Garcia to 3rd.0–2
5Kyle Isbel out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Cam Smith. Drew Waters scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.










