Astros at Royals
Last play · Victor Caratini strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Royals100%
HOU 0%KC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 0 – 2 KC
Royals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 46.8% · hold 4.3%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-155 / +130
Royals favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Vinnie Pasquantino homers (3) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 5) — +10% Royals
5Vinnie Pasquantino homers (3) on a fly ball to right field.0–2
1Mark Canha out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Zach Dezenzo. Jonathan India scores. Bobby Witt Jr. to 3rd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.










