Brewers at Cardinals
MIL5–
STL6Last play · Nolan Arenado homers (3) on a fly ball to left field.
Win probability
Cardinals100%
MIL 0%STL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIL 2 – 5 STL
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 6.5 ↑
fair over 46.8% · hold 4.3%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+125 / -150
Cardinals favored ↑50%Brewers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jackson Chourio homers (6) on a fly ball to left center field. Isaac Collins scores. (inning 9) — -44% Brewers
9Nolan Arenado homers (3) on a fly ball to left field.5–6
9Jackson Chourio homers (6) on a fly ball to left center field. Isaac Collins scores.5–5
6Joey Ortiz grounds into a force out, pitcher Sonny Gray to second baseman Thomas Saggese to shortstop Masyn Winn. William Contreras scores. Rhys Hoskins to 3rd. Jake Bauers out at 2nd. Joey Ortiz to 1st.3–5
5Jackson Chourio doubles (10) on a line drive to left fielder Brendan Donovan. Brice Turang scores.2–5
5Caleb Durbin doubles (2) on a line drive to center fielder Victor Scott II. Joey Ortiz scores.1–5
4Willson Contreras singles on a ground ball to second baseman Brice Turang. Lars Nootbaar scores. Throwing error by second baseman Brice Turang.0–5
4Lars Nootbaar singles on a ground ball to center fielder Sal Frelick. Masyn Winn scores. Lars Nootbaar to 2nd.0–4
3Brendan Donovan doubles (8) on a line drive to left fielder Jackson Chourio, deflected by center fielder Sal Frelick. Lars Nootbaar scores.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.